Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory
000 WTNT35 KNHC 180237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT25 KNHC 180237 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 63.3W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 63.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
980
WTNT35 KNHC 172336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Sat Aug 17 2024
- ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND - DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 33.5 NORTH 63.7 WEST
ABOUT 100 MILES, 160 KILOMETERS NORTHEAST, OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1065 MILES, 1715 KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST, OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 MILES PER HOUR, 120 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST, OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MILES PER HOUR, 9 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MILLIBAR, 28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
- A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north northeast near 6 Miles Per Hour, (9 Kilometers Per Hour), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight.
- An acceleration toward the north northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 75 Miles Per Hour, (120 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday.
- The cyclone will likely become post tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 Millibar, (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next several hours.
STORM SURGE:
- Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeter) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 millimeter).
- This rainfall will likely result in considerable life threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low lying areas.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today.
- Life threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT45 KNHC 172032 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection located in a small band just north of the center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt. Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030 degrees) at 5 kt. This slow motion is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or Monday night. After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north Atlantic. The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72 hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous NHC forecast. Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear environment for the next 24 hours or so. The storm's current broad structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so. This is reflected in the official intensity forecast. Weakening should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near southeastern Newfoundland. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up into a trough over the north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and battering waves should continue through tonight. The heavy rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities
165
FONT15 KNHC 172032
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) X(50) X(50)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT25 KNHC 172031 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..315NE 305SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000 WTNT35 KNHC 172031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO INCHING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 64.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 64.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000 WTNT35 KNHC 171746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA AS ERNESTO SLOWS DOWN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 64.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin later on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Bermuda's L.F. Wade International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda through tonight, with hurricane-force gusts possible in rainbands. STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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BREAKING: Elon Musk announces closure of X local operations in Brazil after leftist judge threatens arrest of legal rep
Elon Musk announced the closure of X operations in Brazil on Saturday, saying that Brazil’s Alexandre de Moraes was threatening the arrest of X’s legal representation and was requiring the social media company to break international law
Musk posted, “Due to demands by ‘Justice’ Alexandre in Brazil that would require us to break (in secret) Brazilian, Argentinian, American and international law, X has no choice but to close our local operations in Brazil. He is an utter disgrace to justice.”
The Global Government Affairs page of X stated that on Friday, “Alexandre de Moraes threatened our legal representative in Brazil with arrest if we do not comply with his censorship orders. He did so in a secret order, which we share here to expose his actions.”
“Despite our numerous appeals to the Supreme Court not being heard, the Brazilian public not being informed about these orders and our Brazilian staff having no responsibility or control over whether content is blocked on our platform, Moraes has chosen to threaten our staff in Brazil rather than respect the law or due process. As a result, to protect the safety of our staff, we have made the decision to close our operation in Brazil, effective immediately,” the statement added.
This is a breaking story. Please refresh for updates.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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JOBOB: Obama’s alma mater Occidental College under fire for letting go of conservative economic professor
Occidental College in Los Angeles, the alma mater of former President Barack Obama, is under fire after deciding not to renew the contract of a conservative economics professor, Daron Djerdjian.
Djerdjian, who has been teaching at the college since 2010, is known for his free-market views, making him a rare voice of conservatism in the institution’s economics department. According to economist Mark Skousen, who serves as adjunct faculty at an institute founded by Djerdjian, the college’s decision not to renew his contract is part of a broader move away from intellectual diversity.
In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Skousen referred to Djerdjian as the college’s “only free-market professor” and suggested that the decision to let him go reflects the college’s commitment to diversity and equity in a selective manner.
“For all its talk about diversity, equity and inclusion, Occidental College, the only small liberal-arts college in Los Angeles, doesn’t seem keen on putting those values into practice,” Djerdjian wrote in his op-ed. “Late last year the economics department opted not to renew the contract of an untenured professor whose libertarian and conservative views went against the grain. So much for its public commitment to diversity of political views.”
The news of Djerdjian’s departure has sparked significant opposition from the college community. A petition initiated by students and alumni, urging the college to retain Djerdjian received 400 signatures. The students behind the petition argued that Djerdjian’s conservative perspectives are essential to ensuring a broad range of viewpoints are represented in the curriculum.
“This will be a colossal loss to his past, present and prospective students, as well as to the marketplace of ideas at Occidental College and the world at large,” the petition said.
Skousen also criticized the economics department’s shift in recent years, claiming it has moved away from being a place of intellectual diversity.
“The economics department is now largely staffed by graduates of University of California schools who place more emphasis on fair trade than free trade and market failure than government failure, and are more likely to quote Keynesian Joseph Stiglitz than Milton Friedman,” Skousen claimed. “Sadly, political diversity is dying at Oxy and is being replaced by less tolerant wokeness.”
This piece first appeared at TPUSA.
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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