Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT12 KNHC 150838
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 150838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 ...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 44.8W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 44.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and it could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150539 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA WEAKENING WHILE MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 109.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is meandering off the coast of northern Sinaloa but has a longer-term motion toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected soon with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near the coastal region of northern Sinaloa overnight, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have begun decreasing and are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ileana is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora during the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 150238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB. Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5 in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently, subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above. Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or 245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone will survive during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 150236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON WEAKENS AND TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 43.8W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 43.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower west-southwestward or westward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to become a depression later tonight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory
904 WTNT22 KNHC 150236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 109.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.4N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Netherlands declares state of emergency over migrant crisis
The Netherlands, under the leadership of Geert Wilders’ right-wing party, announced on Friday that it would be declaring a national state of emergency in an effort to reduce the influx of asylum seekers.
The government plans to end its policy of granting open-ended asylum permits and limit the circumstances under which those granted asylum can bring family members into the country. Currently, around 40,000 asylum seekers enter the Netherlands each year, according to DW.
The emergency law will also allow the Dutch government to suspend decisions on new asylum applications for the next two years and limit the facilities available to asylum seekers.
“We are taking measures to make the Netherlands as unattractive as possible for asylum seekers,” explained Asylum Minister Marjolein Faber in a statement.
To implement these emergency powers to combat its ongoing migrant crisis, the Dutch government will issue a royal decree, allowing it to bypass parliamentary approval, similar to actions taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it will need to prove that these policies are legally justified.
The move comes after Geert Wilders’ election victory last year, which was driven by his promise to implement the strictest migration laws in the European Union (EU). In response to the Dutch government’s aims, the EU will likely push back on such policies as members have previously agreed to the EU’s migration pact, and opt-outs are typically discussed during the negotiating phase.
However, the Dutch government has reaffirmed its intention to seek an exemption from the pact.
In response to the Dutch government’s announcement, EU spokesperson Eric Mamer stated, “We have adopted legislation, you don’t opt out of adopted legislation in the EU, that is a general principle.”
This Story originally came from humanevents.com
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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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