000
WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby
was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. 
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h).  A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is 
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of 
days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on 
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more
hours along portions of the North Carolina coast.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse, 
and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches 
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of 
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts 
as high as 15 inches.  Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over 
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total 
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is 
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast 
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through 
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to 
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the 
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and 
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected 
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of 
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with 
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday.  Scattered 
instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with  Debby, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.  For a list of 
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see 
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.  
The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New 
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday.

SURF:  Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby.  Future information on this system can be 
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO 
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml 
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 090241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia 
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.3 West. The 
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 
mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward 
speed and turn westward is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical remnant low 
is expected to dissipate by the end of this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Papin

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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769 
WTPZ25 KNHC 090240
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 082032
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now
located over south-central North Carolina.  The storm continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia,
with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface
observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and
offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression.  
Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be 
some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North 
Carolina coast for a few more hours.

The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt.  A turn to the
north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward
speed are expected.  This motion will take Debby, or its
remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the
next day or so.  Debby is likely to complete extratropical
transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Debby.  Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 35.1N  80.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  09/0600Z 37.1N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 41.2N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/0600Z 45.7N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 48.9N  62.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 082031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042024
2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N  80.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N  80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  80.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N  76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N  71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N  62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N  80.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON DEBBY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER 
WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML 
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081441
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this 
morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the 
circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. 
This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer 
data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm.

The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous 
forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion 
remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to 
continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower 
forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast 
follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit 
south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler 
waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely 
that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The 
updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant 
low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to 
spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open 
into a trough and dissipate by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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