Politics

President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly sent large reinforcements to the southern Aleppo area after Al-Qaeda linked insurgents’ shock offensive which captured the city. Assad said he will defend Syria’s stability and territorial integrity.

The London-based political opposition group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sunday that the total death toll from the fighting is over 400 people on both sides. The tally includes the deaths of 214 members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions which launched the assault.

And at least 137 pro-government forces and 61 civilians have been killed. The AFP has described that the military campaign launched out of Idlib is being coordinated from an operations room in Turkey.

AFP wrote on Friday that “Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive.” AFPs correspondent in HTS/AQ-held Idlib additionally reported that “The jihadists and their Turkey-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.”

A fresh report in Israeli media has acknowledged that this is all about weakening the ‘Iran axis’:

But the primary reason for the success of the rebel offensive and the collapse of the regime forces is the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 8, 2023.

HTS had been building up its military capabilities for years in preparation for such an offensive.

“The group operates a professionally staffed military academy run by defectors from the Syrian military, and it has restructured its armed wing into a conventional armed force structure,” wrote Charles Lister, Syria expert at the Middle East Institute. “In recent years, it has also developed ‘special forces’ units dedicated to covert operations, lightning raids behind enemy lines, and nighttime operations.”

In prior years, any time an air and artillery campaign against Al-Qaeda held Idlib would ramp up, there would be an outcry from the West, and more condemnation of Damascus and Moscow, urging their militaries to halt efforts to take back Idlib.

Central Damascus. No “coup”. Calm and peaceful.#Syria will never fall pic.twitter.com/takewXzlG3

— Vanessa Beeley (@VanessaBeeley) December 1, 2024

According to more on the Israeli and Sunni Islamists’ efforts to roll back the pro-Tehran axis:

“The timing is not coincidental,” Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Times of Israel.

“They identify well the critical, even historical, weakness that the ‘Resistance Axis,’ primarily Hezbollah and Iran, find themselves in,” she continued.

As for Iran, it says that it firmly supports Assad in a new statement. Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi said Sunday he will soon arrive in Damascus to deliver a strong message of support for Syria’s government and military, Iranian state media has said.

“I am going to Damascus to convey the message of the Islamic Republic to the Syrian government,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. He pledged that Iran will “firmly support the Syrian government and army,” IRNA news agency said.

Iran is pointing the finger at Washington and Tel Aviv for this new jihadist offensive:

Araghchi again called the surprise rebel offensive a plot by the United States and Israel.

“The Syrian army will once again beat these terrorist groups as in the past,” the foreign minister added.

In the past couple days of Aleppo fighting, not only has the Islamic Republic’s consulate in the major northern city come under attack, but there have been reports that an Iranian general may have been killed.

“B-but we’re not ISIS or Al Nusra”… pic.twitter.com/TWdkYVjovN

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 1, 2024

The HTS-led coalition is attacking Kurdish groups in the environs of northern Aleppo as well. Currently there are reports the militants are reinforcing their positions near Hama, possibly poised to attack the central city next.

After years and years of crippling sanctions, the Syrian Army remains in a precarious position in terms of resources and logistics. “Outside the city of Hama, Syrian government military vehicles could be seen all over the roads, apparently abandoned by fleeing government troops after they ran out of fuel,” The New York Times writes Sunday.

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As a reminder, amid this renewed conflict the United States still occupied large portions of Syria, and curiously the HTS/AQ militant groups are not attacking these US-occupied areas…

Why does the Western mainstream media never mention the American-occupied territories in Syria pic.twitter.com/4o6EZLiu55

— Richard (@ricwe123) October 5, 2024

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks…

The Turkish-backed terrorists’/“rebels’” advance on Aleppo, which was analyzed here, came as a shock to most observers.

There was almost half a decade of peace between the March 2020 ceasefire and now, yet practically nothing was done to prepare for this possibility.

This was in spite of the front line remaining roughly two dozen kilometers away from Aleppo, which should have reminded Assad of how vulnerable his country’s second city is.

Here are the five reasons why Syria was caught by surprise:

1. Complacency & Corruption

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) rested on its laurels because it took the Russian-brokered ceasefire for granted, after which the country’s infamous corruption kicked in to degrade its capabilities. There’s no excuse for why even basic drones weren’t used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect the buildup that preceded this advance. A large part of why the SAA didn’t do anything is likely because it assumed that its Russian and Iranian allies would shoulder these responsibilities for them.

2. The Russian-Iranian Rivalry

Russia and Iran fought together against terrorism in Syria, but they’re also rivals who are competing with each other for premier influence over Damascus. So intense is their competition that Russia always does nothing other than occasionally complain whenever Israel bombs the IRGC there, never once giving Syria the means to intercept these attacks or retaliate afterwards. Had they not been rivals, then Russia and Iran could have jointly strengthened the SAA, carried out ISR in Idlib, and bolstered Aleppo’s defenses.

3. Distracted & Crippled Allies

To make matters even worse for Syria, the terrorists’/“rebels’” advance on Aleppo came precisely at the moment when Russia is distracted with the special military operation (SMO) and Iran has been crippled by its West Asian Wars with Israel. Without sufficient Russian airpower and Iranian manpower, including that which the latter could have called upon from Hezbollah, it’ll be extremely difficult for the SAA to push the attackers away from Aleppo. This factor, more than any other, might have even sealed its fate.

4. Ignoring The SMO’s Lessons

Even amidst the Russian-Iranian rivalry and its allies’ aforesaid problems, the SAA could have learned the SMO’s lessons on its own and correspondingly prepared much better for what ultimately came to pass. Masterful drone tactics and strategically dispersed units have characterized the attack thus far, both of which are hallmarks of the SMO, yet the SAA was totally unprepared for this. It must therefore take final responsibility for failing to do its duty in learning from that conflict and adapting its defenses accordingly.

5. Not Compromising For Peace

The last reason why Syria was caught by surprise is because it didn’t compromise for peace by accepting 2017’s Russian-written “draft constitution”, which was constructively critiqued in detail here. It’s chock-full of concessions so one can sympathize with Syria for rejecting it, but in hindsight, this could have finally resolved the conflict and thus averted the ongoing fiasco in Aleppo. For this reason, it could be revived during these desperate times, but the “opposition” might now demand even more concessions.

The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks.

It’s not part of a “5D chess master plan” to “trap the terrorists in a cauldron” like some members of the Alt-Media Community have implied or claimed.

Observers should reject the “insight” shared by those who already discredited themselves with their fantastical takes on the SMO and the West Asian Wars.

The “politically inconvenient” truth is that Syria was caught by surprise, the SAA is on the backfoot, and the worst might be yet to come.

Authored by Leslie Eastman via LegalInsurrection.com,

Asteroid Apophis, named after the Egyptian god of chaos and destruction, is a near-Earth asteroid that has garnered significant attention due to its close approach to our home planet.

Discovered in 2004, Apophis is classified as a potentially hazardous object. Due to swing close enough to the planet in 2029, the gravitational influence will be enough to cause tremors.

A recent study led by Ronald-Louis Ballouz from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory suggests that the asteroid 99942 Apophis may experience tremors—similar to earthquakes—due to Earth’s gravitational pull during its close flyby on April 13, 2029, with simulations indicating significant surface changes.

Apophis, approximately 340 meters in size, will pass within about 32,000 kilometers of Earth, closer than many satellites in orbit.

When Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi during the University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey (UHAS), initial calculations indicated that it could approach Earth with a risk of collision, especially during its pass in 2029. It didn’t help that it is named after the Egyptian god of darkness and chaos.

The original estimates for collision were as high as 2.7%, and Apophis achieved the highest rating ever on the ‘Torino scale’ – a method used to evaluate the threat that an asteroid poses to Earth.

However, new calculations and observations have led scientists to conclude that there will be no impact….for at least 100 years.

….Using the data available at the time, astronomers believed that there was a chance that the flyby could alter the trajectory of Apophis in a way that would line it up for a collision with Earth in 2068.

However, radar observations of Apophis made by NASA’s Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California and the Green Bank Observatory, West Virginia, in March 2021 greatly improved our knowledge of the asteroid’s current orbit and allowed astronomers to finally rule out any chance of Earth impact for at least 100 years.

And while it won’t strike Earth, Apophis will be bright enough in the skies to be visible to the unaided eye. So, the viewing parties could be fun!

As I mentioned, the viewing parties of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are currently making their own plans for up-close-and-personal observations.

The OSIRIS-APEX mission is slated to visit the asteroid. It continues the OSIRIS-REx mission, which successfully collected and returned samples from asteroid Bennu (which I reported on in a 2023 post).

OSIRIS-APEX is a mission to study the physical changes to asteroid Apophis that will result from its rare close encounter with Earth in April 2029. That year, Apophis’ orbit will bring it within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth’s surface — closer to Earth than our highest-altitude satellites. Our planet’s gravitational pull is expected to alter the asteroid’s orbit, change how fast it spins on its axis, and possibly cause quakes or landslides that will alter its surface.

OSIRIS-APEX will allow scientists on Earth to observe these changes. Additionally, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will dip toward the surface of Apophis ­– a “stony” asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron ­ – and fire its engines to kick up loose rocks and dust. This maneuver will give scientists a peek at the composition of material just below the asteroid’s surface.

Other satellite projects, including those related to planetary defense, are also being planned.

Under the auspicious “NEAlight” project, a team from Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU) and led by space engineer Hakan Kayal has revealed three concepts for such spacecraft. Each of the suggested satellites will aim to exploit this asteroid passage because Earth experiences just once such event every millennium.

The goal? To collect data that could help scientists better understand the solar system, and perhaps even aid in the development of defense measures against dangerous asteroids.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Video streaming site Rumble has filed a lawsuit against the state of California in response to legislation forcing social media platforms to censor political speech.

Rumble is being represented by The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), which filed suit against AB 2655, aka the “Defending Democracy from Deepfake Deception Act of 2024,” in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California, Sacramento Division.

The legislation is Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s response to a deepfake satire video of Kamala Harris that was shared on X by Elon Musk among others.

JUST IN: Elon Musk tells CA Governor Gavin Newsom to “Suggon Deeznutz” after Newsom threatened to change the law to make AI “ad” voices illegal.

Newsom was upset over a parody video (below) that Musk shared on X.

“Manipulating a voice in an “ad” like this one should be illegal.… pic.twitter.com/19MYrk21rr

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 29, 2024

ADF stated in a press release that the law “deputizes” Rumble to restrict its user’s free speech, while another law, AB 2839, “Protecting Democracy Against Election Disinformation and Deepfakes,” uses vague standards to punish individuals posting political content about elections.

“California’s war against political speech is censorship, plain and simple. We can’t trust the government to decide what is true in our online political debates,” said ADF Senior Counsel Phil Sechler.

“Rumble is one of the few online voices stepping up against this trend of censorship while other platforms and sites cave to totalitarian regimes censoring Americans,” Sechler further urged.

He added that “Rumble is standing for free speech even when it is hard. Other online platforms and media companies must see these laws for what they are — a threat to their existence.”

Chris Pavlovski, Chairman and CEO of Rumble, further urged that “The very thought of the government judging the content of political speech, and then deciding whether it should be permitted, censored, or eliminated altogether is about the most chilling thing you could imagine.”

“Rumble
will always celebrate freedom and support creative independence, so we’re delighted to work with ADF to help protect lawful online expression,” Pavlovski asserted.

The Democratic Party is pushing hard to enact laws that force censorship.

As both Hillary and Bill Clinton have noted, its a response to them losing ‘total control’ over the free flow of information.

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