Jack Posobiec hosted Human Events columnist Kenny Cody on Tuesday’s episode of Human Events Daily to discuss Covenant School shooter Audrey Hale’s troubled history after much of her 2023 journal was published by the Tennessee Star. Cody, who has followed the case closely, said that he thought these newly released writings were “strange” and came…
Tag: science
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
It is true that “a rising tide lifts all boats,” meaning that as the market rises, investors begin to chase higher stock prices, leading to a virtual buying spiral. Such leads to an improvement in market breadth and participation, which supports further price increases. Following the August decline, the chart below shows the improvement in the NYSE advance-decline line and the number of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMA).
Given that “for every buyer, there must be a seller,” this data confirms that buyers are increasingly willing to pay higher prices to bring sellers to market. That cycle continues until buyers willing to pay higher prices decline. While prices are rising, we are seeing a dwindling of buyers at current prices, as shown in the chart of trading volume at various price levels. As shown, buyers currently “live lower” between 5440-5480 and the recent correctional lows.
However, despite the diminishing pool of buyers at current levels, investors are becoming increasingly bullish as prices rise. As shown in our composite fear/greed gauge, based on “how investors are positioned” in the market, we are back to more “greed” based levels. While not at extreme levels, investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about higher future prices. Of course, such readings only confirm what market prices are already telling us.
However, two primary risks to the bullish advance are developing as we enter September.
Share Buyback Window Begins To Close
Over the next two months, a primary risk to bullish investors is removing a critical buyer in the market – corporations. For more on the importance of corporate share purchases on the financial markets, read the following:
Those articles support that corporations have comprised roughly 100% of net equity purchases since 2000. In other words, the market would be trading closer to 3000 rather than 5600 without corporate share buybacks.
However, these share buybacks also pose risks to the market in the short-term as well. As Michael Lebowitz noted this morning:
“Like the meteorological seasons, share buybacks also follow predictable patterns. Accordingly, as shown below, we are past the peak share buyback season. Following the peak, share buybacks will decline rapidly until early November. Declining share buybacks is not a bearish indicator per se. However, as the number of buybacks declines, the market, specifically the stocks conducting buybacks, will have less demand for their stock. Think of share buybacks as a tailwind.
The pattern is predictable because it directly relates to corporate earnings reports. For three reasons, most companies ban share buybacks about a month before their quarterly earnings report.
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Insider Trading Concerns—Employees have access to non-public information regarding their earnings. Therefore, the ban helps eliminate the perception that the company might be trading its stock on such information.
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Investor Perception– Similarly, investors might be suspicious if the company was actively buying its stock right before the earnings announcements. If the investors were mimicking the company’s purchases, this could create heightened volatility in the stock.
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Regulatory Concerns—While the SEC does not regulate share buybacks before earnings, most companies want to avoid an investigation if the SEC suspects those buying back the shares have inside information.
As shown on Thursday, September 5th, the window for buybacks will begin to close. Corporate buying support will be non-existent by the beginning of October and through the end of the month. In other words, the primary buyer of equities will not be available to bid prices.
If you don’t believe that share buybacks are as crucial as we state, the following chart should answer any questions.
Unfortunately, removing that primary buyer will coincide with a secondary market risk.
Presidential Election Concerns
As we enter September and October, a secondary risk increases. Historically, these months have seen stock market declines, especially in years with a Presidential election. There are three primary reasons for this trend.
1. Uncertainty Surrounding Election Outcomes
Markets dislike uncertainty, and the outcome of a Presidential election is a significant unknown. Investors become cautious during election years, especially when the race is tight. They worry about potential policy changes impacting taxes, regulations, and government spending. That heightened uncertainty increases market volatility and often results in stock market declines as investors move to safer assets.
2. Policy Change Concerns
Depending on the election outcome, significant policy changes can occur. For instance, Harris and Trump have very different approaches to fiscal policy, regulation, and international trade this year. With the polls very tight, Wall Street may look to lock in gains before the election, fearing that new policies might negatively affect corporate profits via higher tax rates and, potentially, changes to capital gains rates.
3. Economic Data Releases
September and October are critical months for economic data releases, particularly since the Federal Reserve expects to cut rates in September. Key indicators from employment, inflation, and housing will potentially move markets over the next two months. Given the approaching election, the markets will scrutinize those releases closely as candidates try to leverage the data. Any negative surprises could result in a sharp pickup in volatility.
Conclusion
As we head into September, which already has a weak performance record, understanding these two risks can help investors navigate a potential pickup in volatility, particularly during election years.
However, the timing of such a consolidation or correction is always tricky.
We suggest maintaining risk controls, taking profits as needed, rebalancing portfolios, and holding slightly higher cash levels.
While these actions won’t entirely shield portfolios from a near-term decline, they will buffer increased volatility, allowing for more rational and controlled portfolio management decisions.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/04/2024 – 07:20
Globalism Is Economic Slavery | ZeroHedge
Globalism Is Economic Slavery
Authored by J.B.Shurk via AmericanThinker.com,
Imagine life in the near future. ..
A man resides alone in a tiny apartment. He would prefer to be married, but the State considers that antiquated institution “patriarchal” and “white supremacist.” He would prefer to have children, but he can’t afford them. Besides, his yearly carbon allowance is insufficient to cover another resource-wasting human being.
He has never owned anything. He rents his bedroom, his furnishings, and his meager entertainments. Each month, a digital account associated with his digital ID receives a number of central bank digital currency units. How much he receives depends upon the number of hours he works at his government job, how much the government values his work, how much the government taxes him for the privilege of using public infrastructure, and how much of his income the government decides should be redistributed to other citizens in need. After taxes, rents, utilities, and other assorted municipal, state, federal, and international fees are deducted from his earnings, he has little — if any — discretionary income.
If he chooses to save that income to invest in his future, the government informs him that his central bank digital currency units disappear within ninety days. If he tries to purchase something that the government has banned, he forfeits what he currently has. If he does something that the government deems contrary to his well-being, his social credit score decreases, and a fraction of his discretionary income disappears. Every few weeks, a digital doctor (running on artificial intelligence) appears on the video screen in his apartment with a detailed list of all the “unhealthy” things he has done since their last interaction. He is informed that a portion of his temporary savings will be redistributed to citizens with healthier habits. His A.I. health monitor tells him that he must immediately report to the closest pharmaceutical distribution center so that he can be injected with the latest “vaccines.” Failure to do so will result in the deactivation of all electronic entertainment devices and a permanent mark on his social credit record.
He is unhappy, and because the State’s A.I. supervisor has detected his unhappiness, the display monitor in his apartment encourages him to find personal meaning by “joining the fight against global warming.” For a while, he does just that. He attends community meetings in his apartment building where government officials talk about the importance of “saving the planet” by “owning nothing.” He chats with anonymous strangers (bots?) on the State’s social media platform, and they all agree that the sacrifices they’re making to save the world are definitely worth it. He wakes up one morning to discover that his social credit score has risen and that he has been rewarded with a few extra central bank digital currency units. Still, our future man remains unhappy.
Then one day sirens blare, and his apartment monitor flashes with breaking news: the country is at war. He listens intently but can’t figure out which foreign nations are attacking. The trusted news anchors tell him that peace, prosperity, and freedom are all at risk. He steps outside his tiny apartment to find other solitary renters fired up and talking excitedly about the battles to come. He walks back inside to find his A.I. supervisor informing him that he has been personally selected to protect the homeland from its enemies. For the first time in many years, our future man feels alive.
He soon finds himself in boot camp, where he enjoys regular exercise, discipline, and camaraderie. Six months later, he and his new friends are shipped overseas. Strangely, in all this time, nobody has explained whom they will actually be fighting. All he knows is that they’re at war with “the authoritarians” who wish to “take our democracy.” There is anticipation in his camp and endless talk of adventure. Then, when everyone least expects it, a thunderous swarm of drones attacks from overhead. Nobody has time to react. Explosions seem to come from out of nowhere. He sees the bodies of his friends torn to pieces. Then everything goes dark.
He awakes in a hospital severely injured, is called a hero, and is later sent home. When he arrives, he notices breadlines outside the government’s genetically engineered food distribution centers. He hears a beggar on the street joke that they should call them “insect-lines,” since that’s all there is to eat. He learns that someone else has moved into his old apartment, but he is offered a new one because of his military service. It is smaller and has even fewer furnishings than the one he lost. He realizes that most of his former neighbors never returned from war and that many of the newcomers now living in their apartments look and sound like those people he was told to fight overseas. Nothing makes sense. His injuries torment him. He feels even more lost and lonely than before he went to war. His A.I. supervisor informs him that he has been added to a list of people considered “potential domestic terrorists.” Remaining on this list will make it hard for him to work and live.
Then, one day, his digital doctor asks if he would like some assistance in ending his life peacefully. “You can save others,” he is told, “by permanently reducing your carbon footprint.” In agony, he wonders, “How did we get here?”
The shortest answer to our future friend is this: governments abandoned sound money. They replaced gold coins with paper currencies. They made it illegal for ordinary citizens to conduct business freely and demanded that government-issued bills be used in economic transactions. Then they gave private central banks the authority to print these paper bills whenever they determined that doing so would be good for the economy.
Whose economy do wealthy central bankers protect — Wall Street’s or that of the working class? Although putatively charged with financial duties to maximize employment and minimize inflation, central banks function as market manipulators and money printers for overspending governments. By increasing the supply of paper currency, the price of consumer goods rises. However, the numerical price of stock market shares also goes up. These capital assets do not gain any real value, but their rising prices give the illusion of economic growth. Many bad companies that would never survive in a free market become lucrative investment opportunities in fake markets. Easy money sustains companies that produce no market value. Who loses most in this artificial arrangement? The poorest people who have no stocks and only limited cash savings. They have watched the hundred-dollar bill hidden under their mattresses lose most of its value over the last fifty years.
Neither fiat currencies nor central banks have any functional place in free societies. Governments that manipulate the value of money rig markets and steal from the working poor. The wealthiest end up owning everything, while everyone else tries to balance life precariously on a tightrope of consumer debts, mortgages, long-term loans, and the growing prospect of insolvency. This world that financial and political elites have built is unsustainable. It is also a kind of economic slavery.
Because it is unsustainable, those who have benefited most from its creation will do anything they must to survive its collapse. A crashing dollar does not matter if those who control the financial system today control the central bank digital currencies of tomorrow. Gross inequality and rampant poverty do not matter if governments can convince unhappy citizens that climate change, disease, and war require them to own less and sacrifice more. Growing public anger does not matter if those with armies can censor speech, throttle food supplies, foment wars, and imprison dissidents.
Ponder this: how much of the story above seems foreign, and how much of it seems painfully familiar? Your answer tells us just how much time we have left.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/03/2024 – 23:25
So Much For Sanctions: Russia Surpasses US For Gas Exports To EU
So Much For Sanctions: Russia Surpasses US For Gas Exports To EU
By Liz Heflin of Rmxnews.com
From April to June, the European Union bought more than 12.7 billion cubic meters from Russia and 12.3 billion cubic meters from the United States.
Director of the Russian Department of Economic Cooperation of the Foreign Ministry, Dmitri Birichevski, says Russia now supplies 15 percent of the total volume of natural gas imported by the European Union. This despite the EU’s REPowerEU instituted back in May 2022 to shift away from Russia and cut it off from its flow of energy profits.
Birichevski noted, in particular, the fact that France imported 4.4 billion cubic meters of liquid natural gas (LNG) in the first quarter of 2024, more than double the circa 2 billion it imported in 2023.
Norway is still in first place, having supplied the EU with 23.9 billion cubic meters in Q2. Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia held the top spot.
The German government maintains it no longer imports any gas from Moscow. However, many member states clearly do.
In the face of renewed demands to end Russian imports and defund Putin’s war chest, the energy policy spokesman for the Free Democratic Party (FDP) suggested that the EU “pay a fixed amount of aid and arms supplies to Ukraine for every cubic meter of imported Russian gas.“
After Hungarian FM Szijjártó’s meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, Hungary doubles down on Russian gas, saying it is not a matter of ideology but physics.
The government has repeatedly put families and households first when it comes to securing energy supply, and with the… pic.twitter.com/iBL0Rl6J3p
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 30, 2024
The matter of Russian gas imports has been an ongoing saga, with reports of shipments from Russia being essentially laundered through other countries and pipelines to avoid being stamped as “Russian.”
This new data comes in the face of no less than 14 sanctions packages, including the latest one adopted in June, which specifically prohibits the transit of Russian LNG.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/03/2024 – 18:25
72-year old woman who was allegedly drugged by husband and raped by 72 men over a decade appears at trial
Man on trial for allegedly drugging his wife and then watching and filming her being raped. “For the first time, she will have to live through the rapes that she endured over 10 years,”
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro orders arrest of opposition candidate
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has ordered police to arrest opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González as the socialist government continues to suppress its political enemies after a disputed election.
Islamic State claims responsibility for suicide bombing in Kabul that killed 6 civilians
The terrorist organization said the blast was in retaliation for the Taliban reopening a detention center at its high-security Bagram base.
Newspaper Releases Full Copy Of Nashville Trans Shooter’s ‘Manifesto’
Newspaper Releases Full Copy Of Nashville Trans Shooter’s ‘Manifesto’
Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,
The Tennessee Star released on Tuesday the purported manifesto of Nashville school shooter Audrey Hale, who killed three 9-year-old children and three adult staff members at the Covenant School on March 27, 2023.
Much of the material in Hale’s 90 pages of writings has already been reported, including her rantings about her gender.
“So now in America, it makes one a criminal to have a gun or, be transgender, or non-binary,” Hale wrote in one journal entry. “God I hate those s***head politicians.”
Michael Patrick Leahy, editor-in-chief of The Star, said on Tuesday that he’s releasing the entire document for the public to see.
Nashville shooter Audrey Hale’s full ‘manifesto’ was released today. I didn’t see much new when I scanned it briefly. Hale did view Columbine as an inspiration, hated her dad, and had fantasies of anal sex w/ a ‘young brown girl w/ a big ass’ pic.twitter.com/bfHczmydoz
— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) September 3, 2024
“We legally obtained this handwritten journal – which we refer to as The Covenant Killer’s 2023 Journal to distinguish it from the many journals written by Hale prior to 2023 – in early June of 2024 from a source familiar with the MNPD investigation,” Leahy said.
“We have had a First Amendment right to publish these unredacted documents from the moment we legally obtained them.”
Leahy did say that he hesitated to publish the documents after he was threatened with contempt proceedings by NashvilleJudge I’Ashea Myles, who has ruled that the materials should be kept secret.
“This ‘Sword of Damocles’ has been held over my head by Judge Myles since June 17, 2024, and we have held off on publishing The Covenant Killer’s 2023 Journal, in part, until our legal defense financial resources have reached a sufficient level such that I can hire counsel to represent me in the event Judge Myles seeks to resurrect this false claim against me,” he said.
The Star has an appeal pending against Myles’ ruling.
According to Myles’s July ruling, the evidence held by law enforcement includes more than 100 gigabytes of data—far more evidence than her 90-page manifesto.
Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/jd_cashless.
ZeroPointNow
Tue, 09/03/2024 – 12:25
‘Shroud of Turin 2’ is said to be Jesus’ head cloth
As debate rages over the scientific veracity of proving the Shroud of Turin is actually the burial cloth of Jesus Christ, another relic is drawing attention as the possible head cloth of Christ with an image that actually matches that on the famous Shroud.
VANESSA BATTAGLIA: RFK Jr endorsing Trump was a miracle
Jesus warned that families would become divided, and that only he who hates his life in this world will keep it eternally. But you never think it’s going to happen on live TV.