science

Authored by John Tamny via RealClearMarkets.com,

Andy Kessler writes in his latest Wall Street Journal column that the U.S. “is strong precisely because we don’t all think the same way. New ideas come from new ways of thinking.” Kessler puts it so well. We individuals generally see the present and future very differently, and it’s this very division praised by Kessler that powers so much advance.

The entertainment industry explains the business meaning of Kessler’s thinking well. Chevy Chase was offered the role of Otter in Animal House, but chose Foul Play instead. Donald Sutherland was offered $20,000 plus gross points in Animal House, but instead held out for $35,000 minus the points given his deep belief that the small movie wouldn’t generate much box office.

Chase and Sutherland’s errant business choices remind us that the good and great decisions are rarely obvious at the time. The previous truth would in a better world awaken the political class to how wrongheaded its actions vis-à-vis TikTok are. Implicit in their attacks and their legislative role in a TikTok ban is that TikTok’s alleged CCP-generated popularity will be used to spy on Americans with an eye on bringing the CCP’s authoritarian ways to the United States.

More realistically, data on Americans is the most valuable in the world, and it’s already sold around the world for exactly that reason.

Which is a reminder that data on the American people already existed (and will exist) in abundance with or without TikTok, and it will be sold around the world (including to producers, politicians, or both in China) with or without TikTok.

At the same time, the desire among the world’s producers to know about us Americans is something to celebrate, not legislate against: they want to know about us because we’re the most productive people on earth. The better they understand us, the better their ability to meet and lead our needs.

What’s important is that the prosperity of the American people is, per Kessler, borne of freedom; of Americans disagreeing about everything and getting to vivify their discordant viewpoints in the marketplace. Economic progress is the happy end result of disagreements expressed. We generally describe those who express disagreements via the profit motive as entrepreneurs.

Bringing the genius of disagreement back to TikTok, protectionist U.S. politicians shouldn’t seek a ban, rather they should allow commerce in the U.S. to freely run its course. And they should do so confidently based on what happens every day in the United States.

What we routinely see in our dynamic markets is that the giants always stumble, and they do because per George Will, tomorrow is another century. Particularly in business, the present is a really lousy predictor of the future. Tim Matheson eagerly coveted the role of Otter that Chase turned down, but as he explains in his excellent new memoir, Damn Glad to Meet You (review forthcoming), “going into a project, you rarely know” if it will be a hit or a box office dud.

The main thing is that disagreement about what will meet and lead the needs of the consumer is what puts the past and present out to pasture, not protectionism.

Protectionism is about limiting and disfiguring the choices of people, not allowing an endless debate within the marketplace to sort out what the future will look like.

At present, U.S. politicians and the courts are in the process of using force to vanquish a U.S.-owned competitor in TikTok that had the temerity to discover the needs of American consumers in ways the competition hadn’t.

How dangerous to use force to suffocate this market signal. Better to rely on freedom.

Authored by Patrick Drennan via RealClearDefense,

Drone boats, drone planes, trolly drones, drone traffic lights and more…

The 2024 word of the year was controversially proposed as either Brat (Collins dictionary), Polarization (Miriam Webster dictionary), or Brain-Rot (Oxford University Press) – however no word has more impact on the modern psych than the word Drone.

The weird and extravagant reactions to drones spotted in the night sky of New Jersey recently reflects that fascination. One member of Congress speculated that they came from outer space.

From drones that can soar through the stratosphere, to rotor drones that hover a few feet above the ground, and submersible drones that glide 50 feet underwater, drones have transformed our lives and modern warfare.

Their impact mainly comes from daily news and internet video images of war footage – particularly the fiery, innovative, and futuristic use of drones in Ukraine.

Cost effective FPV (First Person View), and kamikaze drones excel in reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and direct strikes, proving highly effective at targeting enemy positions…but they have been upgraded for much more than that –

Sea Drones

Ukraine use their Magura V5 and Sea Baby drones to sink Russian barges, attack oil rigs and devastatingly, sink billion-dollar Russian warships.  In February 2024, a video depicted a Ukraine sea drone sinking a Russian battleship. Later, Ukraine used a sea drone with a mounted remote-controlled machine gun to shoot at Russia helicopters. The Russians called in jet fighters to sink these drones, but it is only a matter of time when the sea drones will be mounted with MANPAD ground-to-air missiles.

Trolly Drones

The Palianytsia drone is actually a converted heavy missile powered by a turbojet engine and guided by GPS. It motors down a runway on a wheeled trolley, abandoning the trolley as it gains lift. 

Plane Drones

The Ukrainians have adapted small kitset sports planes into combat drones – flying them by remote control, loaded with explosives. They extend the range of normal drones and increase the payload. On December 15, a video was released showing a Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat drone aircraft damaging a Chechen/Russian military facility 500 miles from the Ukrainian border.

Drone Swarms

Both sides in the Russian/Ukraine conflict use cheap plastic, polystyrene and wooden drone swarms to confuse and confound sophisticated radar systems, like the Russian TombStone system. The drones are often used in conjunction with more sophisticated drones and ballistic missiles. The Russians combine swarms of Iranian HESA Shahed 136 drones with Kalibr cruise missiles, and 9K720 Iskander ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians.

Both sides effectively use electronic jamming equipment to counter drones. In response both sides are increasingly reverting to algorithm trained drones that fly by visual navigation without ground signals. Ukraine also cheekily diverted some attacking drones into the territory of Russian ally Belarus.

Drones Operated by Long Fiber Cables

In response Russia developed drones that were operated by attached thin fiber-optic cables that were over 6 miles long. With no radio signal the drone was impossible to detect, and impossible to jam. However, when former U.S. Marine Troy Smothers saw this, he built similar drones for Ukraine with an incredible range of 15 miles.

Ground Combat Drones

Robot ground drones are being used for a variety of purposes including delivering equipment such as landmines, and astonishingly Ukraine has developed a tracked drone armed with a Browning 12.7 mm machine gun – the Droid TW 12.7. It has a range of eight miles and is also equipped with hi-tech cameras for reconnaissance. They are limited in number but have great potential.

Drone Traffic Lights

A telegram user posted a video of a Russian military traffic light system. It flashes a yellow light when a distant hostile drone is detected. The light turns red when there is a high-level threat, and green when there are no nearby threats at all.

Drone Detection From Space

The Chairperson of the Russian Center for Unmanned Systems,  Andrei Bezrukov claimed on December 14 that the center developed the “Kalinka” monitoring system to detect drones that connect to satellite systems, including Starlink. Bezrukov claimed that the system can detect Ukrainian aerial and maritime drones up to 10 miles away.

Specialized Military Drone Branches

Ukraine and Russia have both established large, dedicated military drone branches.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered  the establishment of a separate branch within the Ukrainian Armed Forces on February 6, 2024, called the Unmanned System Forces (USF). The USF is responsible for interactions with already existing unmanned systems units and with supporting these units. The USF is also responsible for supplying units with drones, training specialists, planning military operations involving unmanned systems, and cooperating with domestic unmanned systems manufacturers.

In response the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a coordinated effort in August 2024 to create a centralized separate branch for unmanned systems, likely to reorganize informal specialized drone detachments and centralize procurement of unmanned systems. The Russian MoD is mainly trying to consolidate the state’s control over Russian drone operators and developers, some of whom had enjoyed relative semi-independence from the Russian military bureaucracy.D

While Russia seeks centralized control, Western armies are offering different tactics. Every British and American army platoon will now have a drone operator. The 75th Ranger Regiment at Fort Benning is being trained in using the RQ-28A short-range reconnaissance (SRR) quadcopter drone.  “The SRR RQ-28A capability will provide game-changing technology to Army platoons, enhancing both soldier lethality and survivability,” said Carson L. Wakefield.

Peaceful Drones 

Drones have incredible value in the civilian world. They assist in humanitarian and disaster response, engineering, construction, crop monitoring, weather forecasting, and search and rescue. They even have drones that can clean high-rise windows.

Despite all the remarkable innovations above, drones are not as destructively effective on the battlefield as artillery, missiles and landmines. However, drones are what captures the public imagination. Now imagine drones that are not operated by humans at all, but by AI programmed robots. Are you ready for that?

Patrick Drennan is a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.

Authored by Ana Paula Pereira via CoinTelegraph.com,

The year 2024 will be remembered as a landmark chapter in crypto history. From surging mainstream demand for Bitcoin-regulated financial products to an expected crypto-friendly White House, the Web3 industry has made significant strides despite facing notable challenges along the way.

With its resilience finally paying off, the industry is now setting its sights on another promising year as hopes for regulatory clarity converge with years of innovation and development.

Experts are closely watching emerging trends poised to not only redefine the crypto landscape but also affect the world as a whole. To explore what lies ahead, Cointelegraph has compiled a list of key crypto trends expected to take center stage in the months to come.

RWAs: The use case to watch in 2025

If you have never heard about it, make a note of this word: tokenization. It refers to the art of turning traditional assets into tokens, making them tradable, even in small fractions. 

Developers, investors and companies from a range of industries were enraptured by the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) fever in 2024, as it unlocks liquidity for traditionally nonliquid assets, such as real estate, and allows people around the world to access investments not always accessible to small investors. 

“RWAs are the use case to watch in 2025. The value of tokenized assets will double in the year,” predicts Sergey Gorbunov, CEO of Interop Labs and co-founder of Axelar Network. 

Gorbunov’s view is followed by venture capital firm a16z. In its annual report on trends in the crypto and blockchain industry, the VC said that “tokenizing unconventional assets could redefine income generation in the digital age.”

According to data from RWA.xyz, the total value of tokenized assets now stands at nearly $13.9 billion, a 67% jump from $8.3 billion in January.

Real-world assets onchain are now worth over $13.8 billion. Source: RWA.xyz

Financial institutions are now looking at risk frameworks for tokenized assets. In other words, they want to ensure compliance with legal requirements, security risks and market volatility issues are addressed. According to Gurbunov:

“Multiple major financial institutions will develop the risk frameworks needed to issue RWAs that can move across interconnected, public blockchains.”

ID checks by AI agents

Several protocols have been working on ways to provide ID verification onchain over the past few years. 

One of the advancements in this field is undoubtedly the emergence of zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs, a technology that allows a human to prove themselves without revealing any personal information. Startups developing this technology include Worldcoin, ONCHAINID and RisedID, to name a few. 

Moving forward, onchain biometric verification is expected to be increasingly powered by artificial intelligence. In other words, you will be checked for your identity autonomously onchain by an AI. This may sound like something out of a sci-fi movie, but it’s just an example of AI and blockchain coming together.

“We expect to see automated biometrics and/or government ID checks become the norm, not the exception,” said Civic CEO Chris Hart. He continued: 

“As AI agents increasingly act on behalf of users, robust identity verification and authorization frameworks will be crucial for controlling what these agents can do and for how long — especially in financial transactions.”

DePINs to take off

Community-driven energy services, online storage and internet connectivity are already a reality through decentralized physical infrastructure networks, or DePINs. 

DePINs allow users to become stakeholders in the network, meaning they can own a piece of the infrastructure they use, thus creating new opportunities for financial inclusion.

Borderless Capital, a venture firm pouring millions of dollars into DePIN protocols, claims the sector holds “the most compelling opportunity” in Web3.

“It is the only Web3 vertical generating revenue and fundamentals with zero correlation to the crypto market, delivering real-world value,” Álvaro Gracia, partner at Borderless, told Cointelegraph.

According to data aggregated by DePIN.Ninja, the market capitalization of DePIN protocols has exceeded $50 billion.

More yields from Bitcoin

Finally, it is impossible to discuss 2025 without mentioning Bitcoin. Once a discredited asset, Bitcoin has made significant strides over the past decade, earning adoption within Wall Street and solidifying its position in the financial landscape.

While developers still struggle with possible upgrades to a network that now has more stakeholders than ever before, startups are exploring alternative ways to unlock yield generation for holders.

“This is the natural need for holders, including the retail and institution. This is the native demand for holders,” said Kevin He of Bitlayer, a Bitcoin layer-2 protocol backed by asset manager firm Franklin Templeton.

According to He, not only investors but also large holders of BTC, such as MicroStrategy, are looking for additional sources of revenue through the fusion of Bitcoin and decentralized finance. 

According to He, Bitcoiners could soon generate annual returns of up to 40% on their holdings.

Authored by Irina Slav via Oilprice.com

• Focus on China’s oil demand, predicted to peak in 2025 or 2027, is expected to keep a lid on oil prices next year.

• Supply disruptions from OPEC+ or renewed sanctions on Iran could challenge price stability in 2025.

• India’s rising oil demand and potential for a supply glut are other factors to consider in the 2025 oil price outlook.

This year in oil has been marked by chronic trader pessimism about Chinese demand and an equally chronic downplaying of supply disruption risks. This has made for a rather stable year in prices—and the stability could continue in 2025, on a few conditions.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate appear set to end the year at nearly the same levels that they started. WTI started 2024 at a little over $70 per barrel and is about to end a little below that. Brent crude looks like it will post a little more noticeable loss, starting the year at $77 per barrel and ending at a bit over $74 at the time of writing.

The biggest reason for this somewhat unnatural stability in oil prices has been the focus on China. Every single report on oil prices this year has featured Chinese economic data or oil import figures in its lead. This is set to continue in 2025 amid a flurry of reports predicting peak oil demand growth for the world’s biggest importer.

China’s very own state oil giants are saying it. CNPC said earlier this month that it expected demand growth to peak in 2025, moving the peak year from 2030, which was its prediction in 2023. The company cited electric vehicle adoption and LNG truck growth as reasons for its predictions, even though the record share of EVs in total car sales this year has failed to reverse China’s oil demand growth.

Sinopec was next, publishing a report a week ago saying that oil demand growth in China was about to reach its peak in three years in 2027. The peak will occur at a daily demand level of some 16 million barrels or a total of 800 million metric tons, the Chinese state oil major said. A year ago, Sinopec saw Chinese oil demand peaking at around 800 million metric tons sometime between 2026 and 2030. China’s oil demand this year is seen reaching 750 million metric tonnes, according to Sinopec.

So, focus on China and pessimism about its demand has kept a lid on prices this year and is likely to keep that lid in place in 2025 as well—unless all the stimulus that the government in Beijing is throwing at the economy doesn’t spur greater demand for the key commodity. As one analyst from Brokerage Pepperstone put it to the Wall Street Journal, “The apparent calm in the oil market hides a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors that could trigger sharp movements at any moment.”

“Attention is focused on the evolution of macroeconomic data and future OPEC+ decisions, which will determine the market’s direction in the coming months,” Quasar Elisundia told the WSJ. In macroeconomic data, the focus will remain on China but also on India, which is shaping up as the next leading demand driver globally. Indeed, S&P Global Commodity Insights recently forecast that India’s oil demand growth rate was set to exceed China’s this year.

“India will be the leading driver, along with Southeast Asia and other parts of South Asia, of the region’s future oil demand growth,” SPGCI’s global head of macro and oil demand research, Kang Wu, said.

But even weaker growth markets such as the European Union, continue to see growth in oil demand, as suggested by import figures. The latest available, for the second quarter of the year, showed a decline in natural gas imports but a pickup in what the EU categorizes as “petroleum oils”. The EU is not the oil market traders look to for insight into demand trends, but this may be an oversight.

On the supply side, the focus, of course, remains on OPEC+, even as forecasters keep repeating how they expect great production growth things from non-OPEC majors such as the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil. These forecasts have started to moderate with regard to the U.S., however, as the industry gives repeated signs that there will be no drilling at will just because there is a pro-oil president in the White House.

The situation with OPEC+ is quite similar. Forecasters have been making traders nervous and bearish for months, reminding them of all that spare capacity that OPEC could bring back online when it decides to roll back its output cuts. What they’ve consistently forgotten to mention is that OPEC and its OPEC+ partners made it clear from the start of the cuts that output would only be brought back online when prices rose high enough. This basically means that several price routs this year were entirely the result of unrealistic expectations, with zero relation to actual oil fundamentals.

In the current context, fundamentals appear to be largely in balance. Many expect a supply glut next year, but that’s based on assumptions about EV adoption that have consistently tended to disappoint. Trump sanctions on Iran could tighten supply from the Middle East further and lend some upward momentum for prices, but chances are that the idea of that big spare capacity cushion of 5 million bpd or more is going to play the role of a market blowout preventer once again.

 

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

It’s a dazzling Tuscan winter morning, and I am inside the legendary Dominican church of Santa Maria Novella, founded in the early 13th century and finally consecrated in 1420, in a very special place in History of Art: right in front of one of the monochrome frescos painted in 1447-1448 by master of perspective Paolo Uccello, depicting the Universal Deluge.

Paolo Uccello: Universal Deluge. 1448 fresco at Santa Maria Novella, Florence. Photo by Pepe Escobar

It’s as if Paolo Uccello was depicting us – in our current times of trouble. So inspired by neoplatonic superstar Marsilio Ficino – immortalized in a chic red robe by Ghirlandaio at the Cappella Tornabuoni – I tried to pull off a back to the future and ideally imagine who and what Paolo Uccello would feature in his depiction of our current deluge.

Let’s start with the positives. 2024 was the Year of the BRICS – with the merit for all the accomplishments going for the tireless work of the Russian presidency.

2024 was also the Year of the Axis of Resistance – until the serial blows suffered during the past few months, a serious challenge which will propel its rejuvenation.

And 2024 was the year that defined the lineaments of the endgame in the proxy war in Ukraine: what remains to be seen is how deep the “rules-based international order” will be buried in the black soil of Novorossiya.

Now let’s turn to the auspicious prospects ahead. 2025 will be the year of consolidation of China as the paramount geoeconomics force on the planet.

It will be the year where the defining battle of the 21st century – Eurasia v. NATOstan – will be sharpened in an array of unpredictable vectors.

And it will be the year of advancing, interlocking connectivity corridors – the defining factor in Eurasia integration.

Not by accident Iran is central to this interlocking connectivity – from the Strait of Hormuz (through which transits, daily, at least 23% of the world’s oil) to the port of Chabahar, which links West Asia with South Asia.

Connectivity corridors to watch are the return of one of the top Pipelineistan sagas, the 1,800 km-long Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline; the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), which links three BRICS (Russia-Iran-India) and several aspiring BRICS partners; the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project; and last but not least, the fast advancing Northern Sea Route (or Northern Silk Road, as the Chinese call it), which will eventually become the cheapest and fastest alternative to the Suez canal.

A few days before the start of Trump 2.0 in Washington, Russia and Iran will finally, officially sign a comprehensive strategic partnership deal in Moscow, over two years in the making: once again, a key deal between two top BRICS, with immense, cascading repercussions in Eurasia integration terms.

A completely sealed channel of negotiation

Dmitri Trenin, respected member of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council, has what is so far the most realist road map for an acceptable end of the proxy war in Ukraine.

“Acceptable” does not even begin to describe it – because from the point of view of the collective West political “elites” which bet the farm and the bank on this war, nothing is acceptable except Russia’s strategic defeat, which will never happen.

As it stands, President Putin is in fact containing elite sectors in Moscow who favor not only cutting off the head of the snake but the body as well.

Trump for his part has less than zero incentive to be dragged into a further quagmire; leave that to the clueless European chihuahuas.

So a possible drive towards a wobbly “peace” agreement also suits the Global Majority – not to mention China, which understands how war is bad for business (at least if you’re not in the weaponizing racket).

When it comes to an always possible “existential” escalation, we’re not out of the woods yet; but there are still three weeks left for some major terror-fueled coup, as in a false flag.

The first two months of 2025 will be absolutely decisive, when it comes to sketching a possible compromise.

Elena Panina from RUSSTRAT has offered a concise, and sobering, strategic assessment of what may pan out.

What Trump essentially craves, like a trashy McDonald’s burger, is to look like the ultimate Alpha Male. So Putin’s tactical negotiating strategy will not be focused on undermining Trump’s tough guy act. The problem is how to pull it off without undermining Trump’s pop star power – and without adding more fuel to the NATOstan warmongering pyre.

Putin holds an array of trump cards close to his chest – related to Europe, the Brits, China, Ukraine itself and the Global South as a whole.

Determining spheres of influence will be part of a possible agreement. The thing is no specific details should be leaked – and must be kept impermeable to Western intel.

That means, as Panina notes, Trump needing a completely sealed channel of negotiation with Putin, which even the MI6 cannot crack.

A tall order, as privileged Zio-con silos across the Deep State are dizzy with the latest Old Testament psycho-pathological victories in Lebanon and Syria, and the way they enfeebled Tehran. Yet that does not mean the Iran-Russia-China-BRICS link is in jeopardy.

The dynamics are set; tread carefully

Putin and the Security Council should be ready to implement a quite complex, step-by-step diplomatic game, as they know that the trifecta of defeated, supremely angry Democrats, Brits and Bankova will apply maximum pressure on Trump and turn him into “an enemy of America” or some similar crap.

Moscow will accept no truce and no freeze: only a real solution.

It that doesn’t work, the war will continue in the battlefield, and Moscow has no problems with that – or with more escalation. The final humiliation of the Empire of Chaos will then be total.

Meanwhile, Cold War 2.0 between China and the U.S. will advance more on the pop sphere than in substance. The sharpest Chinese analysts know that the real competition is not over ideology – as in the original Cold War – but over technology, from AI to upgrading seamless supply chains.

Moreover, Trump 2.0, at least in principle, has less than zero interest in unleashing a proxy war – Ukraine-style – on China in Taiwan and the South China Sea. China has way more geoeconomic resources than Russia.

So it’s not exactly intriguing that Trump is floating the idea of a G2 between the U.S. and China. The Deep State blob will see it as the ultimate plague – and fight it to death. What’s already certain is assuming this goes ahead, the European poodles will be left drowning in a dirty swamp.

Well, political “elites” that appoint braindead specimens like the Medusa von der Lying and the batshit crazy Estonian chick as top representatives of the EU; who start a war against their most important energy supplier; who fully support a genocide broadcast 24/7 to the whole planet; who are obsessed on eradicating the culture which has defined them; and who at best pay only lip service to democracy and freedom of speech, these “elites” do deserve to wallow in filth.

On the Syrian tragedy, the fact is Putin knows who the real enemy is; certainly not a bunch of Salafi-jihadi head-chopping mercenaries. And the Sultan in Ankara is also not the enemy; from Moscow’s perspective, for all his lofty dreams of replacing “Central Asia” with “Turkestan” in Turkiye’s school textbooks, he is a minor geoeconomic and even geopolitical player.

To paraphrase the inestimable Michael Hudson – perhaps our Marsilio Ficino dressed by Paolo Uccello as a writer in a chic red robe – it’s as if in this pre-deluge juncture American elites were saying, “The only solution is total war with Russia and China”; Russia is saying, “We hope there’s peace in Ukraine and West Asia”; and China is saying, “We want peace, not war.

That may not be enough for reaching a compromise – any compromise. So the dynamics are set: the U.S. ruling class will keep imposing instances of chaos while Russia, China and BRICS will keep testing in the “BRICS lab” de-dollarization models, alternative set ups to the IMF and World Bank, and eventually even an alternative to NATO.

An anarchy and War of Terror cornucopia on one side; cool-headed, coordinated realism on the other. Be prepared – for anything. From Renaissance Florence, one of the – few – peaks of humanity, now living in memory, tread carefully across this flame-filled 2025.