“Victory Plan” or Deadly Delusion? Zelensky’s Perilous Five-Point Plan


It’s finally here: Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” furtively touted for weeks as Zelensky sought, unsuccessfully, to peddle it to world leaders. Until now, all that Zelensky would say in public was that this clandestine plan paradoxically would not require negotiation with Putin, but also provides a way to strengthen Ukraine in order to “push Putin” to diplomatically end the war. Tone deaf in the extreme, several weeks ago Zelensky brazenly flew on a US Air Force C-17 transport plane into the key battleground state of Pennsylvania to visit a munitions plant before hectoring the United Nations General Assembly on this special plan. Election interference be damned!

Blessed with Zelensky’s grand reveal of his vaunted five-point plan to the Ukrainian parliament on October 16, the tragic farce of the “Victory Plan” sharpens into focus. Still shielding “three secret” addenda from the general public, Zelensky’s top goal is as unsurprising as it is meretricious: an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. Zelensky hopes that NATO nations will grant Ukraine’s application for admission, which it submitted over two years ago. Ukraine’s Victory plan is little more than a Hail Mary. Why would NATO nations suddenly wish to jump headlong into the fray now, as Ukraine’s already-dim prospects admittedly vanish, which cannot be papered over even by friendly commentators?

The patent absurdity of the Victory Plan does not stop there. Zelensky’s other four points involve: (1) unrestricted Western support for unrestricted warfare; (2) “non-nuclear deterrence” to “safeguard the country against future” Russian “aggression”; (3) “economic growth and cooperation,” which includes further Russian sanctions plus joint investment opportunities; and (4) a “post-war security architecture,” in which Ukraine’s “large and experienced military force” can help secure Europe.

Zelensky seeks to unleash the Ukrainian military, hitherto shackled by arbitrary US restraints on long-range strikes into Russia. This invitation to nuclear war is bad enough, but he also seeks funds, arms, and intelligence from the West beyond the already-prodigious aid and comfort shuttled off these past two years. Additionally, this plank demands for Ukraine “additional supplies of long-range capabilities,” asks for the West to take out Russian missiles and drones, and suggests further ground invasions of Russia to create “buffer zones.” As Russia expands and lowers the bar for using nuclear weapons, Zelensky means to thrash about Russia like an elephant in a Matryoshka shop. Zelensky may feel as though Ukraine has nothing to lose—wrongly, since Russia’s prospect of wiping Ukraine off the map only increases as the war prolongs—but the West has everything to lose. If it stands, President Biden’s justified reticence to authorize long-range strikes into Russia could be the most consequential decision of his presidency. But the media has foamed at the mouth at this cold shoulder—notwithstanding new aid to Ukraine, repeatedly—so do not hold your breath.

At first glance, Zelensky’s call for “economic growth and cooperation” seems almost comical. In these dire straits, marred by death and destruction, what does Ukraine have to offer the West? The devil is in the details. Zelensky’s plan likely seeks to entice lawmakers like US Senator Lindsay Graham, who seek access to Ukraine’s stocks of resources like lithium, a critical mineral used in electric vehicle batteries. Yes, for some supporting Ukraine may be based on as loathsome a reason as securing cronyist exploitation of Ukraine’s natural resources. If you thought the Bush administration would be the last America saw of such contemptuous profiteering, think again. One is tempted to laugh were the situation not so enraging.

In his October 16 address, Zelensky noted the grave consequences that would befall the world if we allowed the impression “that wars of aggression can be profitable,” with new aggressions likely to pop up in “the Gulf region, the Indo-Pacific region, and Africa.” All those things may well occur, but largely this will be thanks to US meddling, rather than the “isolationist” phantom. Unfortunately, however, the establishment piper plays only one tune: “Appeasement! Munich!”

Apparently unironically, Zelensky also states that North Korea’s supplying of Russian with munitions and soldiers “is effectively participation of a second state in the war against Ukraine on Russia’s side.” Surely he realizes that the US and many countries in the West were already belligerents in the war?

Though the foolish depths of the Victory Plan seem limitless, Zelensky offers one silver lining. At least, for those who survive the possible nuclear apocalypse unleashed by his pyrrhic Victory Plan. Under his plan, Ukraine’s soldiers can replace US soldiers in select locations in Europe. Sign me up!

Avoiding war was once the mark of the great statesmen; making peace, equally so. It will be a difficult peace for Ukraine to make. Admitting defeat is rare—for good reason. Many Ukrainians are coming to their senses, but not the most important Ukrainian. For the sake of Ukraine, and the world, one hopes Zelensky rouses from his war-fevered slumber. Hope springs eternal; but alas, so does vanity.

 


Originally Posted at https://mises.org/


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    It’s not a good day for the establishment. Just hours after Kamala Harris – and the Democrats – staggering loss which ushered in Trump as president for the third time and gave Republicans a sweep of Congress, Germany’s three-party ruling coalition which had been on the verge of collapse for months, imploded on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election at the end of March.

    The firing ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party  (FDP) from the troubled coalition, forcing Scholz to call for a confidence vote that he said would take place on January 15. If Scholz loses that vote, which is virtually certain, a snap election is set to take place by March.

    The collapse of Germany’s government came just hours after Donald Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, who depend on American military might for their country’s defense and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry.

    “Dear fellow citizens, I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision, especially in times like these, when uncertainty is growing,” said Scholz – viewed as the weakest German chancellor in decades – in a statement at the chancellery.

    But the rifts inside the coalition proved too great to overcome. Caught in the middle of an impossible battle, Lindner and his conservative FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus.

    “All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,” said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.”

    Scholz said he had offered Lindner a deal to create an emergency fund to aid Ukraine that would exist outside Germany’s regular budget, but Lindner refused to participate in such fiscal gimmicks that saw the UK recently redefine the nature of “debt.”

    “Olaf Scholz has long failed to recognize the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.”

    As Politico reports, the FDP is the smallest party in the coalition and is now polling at only four percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament — meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures.

    Crisis talks in the coalition of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and Lindner’s Free Democratic Party had come to a head after the FDP issued a paper with demands for liberal economic reforms that were difficult for the other two parties to accept.

    Lindner’s recent policy paper, leaked to the media last week, called for tax cuts and a scaling back of climate policies in order to stimulate economic growth — both positions that put the party at odds with his coalition partners.

    Central to the coalition disagreements was the adoption of the 2025 budget by parliament in which a gap of at least €2.4 billion, and potentially far more, needs to be filled, as well as an agreement on measures to revamp the country’s ailing economy.

    The government crisis comes at the worst possible time: Trump’s victory, which anticipates imposing significant tariffs on German exports, is expected to put heavy pressure on Europe’s largest economy. An analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that a new trade war could cost Germany €180 billion over Trump’s four years in office.

    Many in Germany had hoped that the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. election earlier in the day would force the coalition to hold together over fears that the incoming president would give Europe’s biggest economy a hard ride, targeting its all-important car industry in a trade war.

    Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences.

    Sensing that the economy is about to go from bad to much worse, last Tuesday – amid mounting concern about the imminent collapse of the EU’s largest manufacturing economy – Germany’s giant trade union IG Metall launched strikes in the nation’s metal and electrical industries in an attempt to win higher wages. According to the tabloid Bild, employees began walking off the job during the night shift, including at Volkswagen’s plant in the city of Osnabruck, where workers worry the plant may be closed.

    Elsewhere, around 200 employees of the battery manufacturer Clarios went on strike in Hanover, Lower Saxony, carrying torches and union flags, the outlet wrote.

    Meanwhile, in Hildesheim, Lower Saxony, around 400 employees, including those at Jensen GmbH, KSM Castings Group, Robert Bosch, Waggonbau Graaff and ZF CV Systems Hannover, have reportedly halted operations.

    Protests are also expected at BMW and Audi plants in Bavaria. Work is to be stopped nationwide during the course of the day, the tabloid wrote.

    ”The fact that production lines are now at a standstill and offices are empty is the responsibility of the employers,” IG Metall’s negotiator and district manager Thorsten Groger stated, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

    IG Metall is demanding a 7% pay raise compared to the 3.6% raise over a period of 27 months offered by employers’ associations, due to soaring inflation. The companies call such demands unrealistic.

    The mass strikes come as Volkswagen announced on Monday it would close “at least” three of its ten plants in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and downsize remaining plants in the country. The measures are part of a cost-cutting drive, the conglomerate said earlier. Oliver Blume, chief executive of the VW Group, has cited a “difficult economic environment” and “failing competitiveness of the German economy” as factors behind the decision.

    The German Association of the Automotive Industry warned last year that the country was “dramatically losing its international competitiveness” due to soaring energy costs.

    A recent survey by the VDA auto industry association suggested that the reshuffling of the German car industry could lead to 186,000 job losses by 2035, roughly a quarter of which have already occurred.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 11/06/2024 – 23:25

    Shapefile last updated Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:23:27 GMT

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