Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 7


174 
WTNT23 KNHC 050851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  78.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  78.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  77.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N  79.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N  80.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N  82.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N  84.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N  85.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.8N  86.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N  89.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N  90.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


  • NHC

    Related Posts

    Utility Companies Are Not On Our Side

    Utility Companies Are Not On Our Side

    Authored by Linnea Leuken & H. Sterlin Burnett via RealClearPolitics,

    When electric power was a novel idea and just beginning to be adopted in urban centers, the industry had a Wild West feel to it as multiple companies strung wires, opened power plants, and sold electricity on an unregulated market. Competition was fierce, but state and local governments concluded that the inefficiencies and redundancies endangered the public and imposed higher costs.

    So states set up service territories with monopolistic or oligopolistic service providers, who were entrusted with providing reliable power and sufficient reserve for peak periods in return for being guaranteed a profit on rates proposed by the utilities but approved or set by newly established state public utility commissions (PUCs). These commissions were charged with ensuring public utilities served the general public universally within their territory, providing reliable service at reasonable rates.

    Much has changed since then. Politicians began to supplant engineers to decide, based on self-interested calculations, what types of power should be favored and disfavored, and what types of appliances and modes of transportation Americans could use. As the 21st century dawned, a new consideration entered the picture: Climate change.

    Under the banner of combatting global warming, utilities were at first encouraged and then coerced into adopting plans and policies aimed at achieving net zero emissions of carbon dioxide. The aim of providing reliable, affordable power – the rationale for the electric utilities’ monopolies in the first place – was supplanted by a controversial and partisan political goal. Initially, as states began to push renewable energy mandates, utilities fought back, arguing that prematurely closing reliable power plants, primarily coal-fueled, would increase energy costs, compromise grid reliability, and leave them with millions of dollars in stranded assets.

    Politicians addressed those concerns with subsidies and tax credits for renewable power. In addition, they passed on the costs of the expanded grid to ratepayers and taxpayers. Effectively, elected officials and the PUCs, with a wink and a nod, indemnified utilities for power supply failures, allowing utilities to claim that aging grid infrastructure and climate change were to blame for failures rather than the increased percentage of intermittent power added to the grid at their direction.

    Today, utilities have enthusiastically embraced the push for renewable (but less reliable) resources, primarily wind and solar. PUCs guarantee a high rate of return for all new power source (wind, solar, and battery) installations, which has resulted in the construction of ever more and bigger wind, solar, and battery facilities. The costlier, the more profitable – regardless of their compromised ability to provide reliable power or the cost impact on residential, commercial, and industrial ratepayers.

    A new report from The Heartland Institute demonstrates the significant financial incentives from government and financiers for utilities to turn away from affordable energy sources like natural gas and coal, and even nuclear, and instead aggressively pursue wind and solar in particular. All of this is done in the name of pursuing net zero emissions, which every single major utility company in the country boasts about on their corporate reports and websites. Reliability and affordability come secondary to the decarbonization agenda.

    Dominion Energy is a good example, as they are one of the most aggressive movers on climate-focused policy. Dominion CEO Robert Blue speaks excitedly about government-forced transitions to a wind- and solar-dominated grid in interviews. During one interview with a renewable energy podcast, he said:

    [S]ometimes the government needs to focus on outcomes. We’re trying to address a climate crisis, and we are going to need to move quickly to do that.” In the same interview, he expressed enthusiasm about federal policy that would achieve a government-directed transition.

    And why wouldn’t he? Dominion, like most utilities, is granted government tax credits and guarantees on returns for investing in large, expensive projects like offshore wind, the most expensive source of electric power. The bigger the project, the bigger the profit with guaranteed returns.

    Also, onshore wind companies have received special “take limits” from the Fish and Wildlife Service to kill protected bald eagles and golden eagles, while prosecuting oil companies if birds are injured or killed on their sites.

    Net zero policies are not the environmental panacea that climate change activists proclaim.  Industrial-scale wind and solar use substantially more land than conventional energy resources, disrupting ecosystems and destroying wildlife habitats in the process.

    And despite recent technological advances, wind and solar are still not dispatchable resources, meaning they cannot provide consistent power at all times needed. Refuting claims made by environmentalists and utilities that wind and solar are the cheapest sources of electric power, costs have risen steeply as the use of wind and solar has increased. Customers of Duke Energy in Kentucky, for example, are paying 78% higher rates in the wake of coal-fired plant closings.

    Politicians and utilities are pushing for even more electrification for appliances and vehicles despite the fact that Federal Energy Regulatory Commission officials have repeatedly warned in recent years that adding more demand for electric power while replacing reliable power sources with intermittent renewables is destabilizing the power system. 

    It appears that the utilities prioritize short-term profits over grid reliability or keeping costs reasonable – and the government officials who are supposed to keep them in check are only encouraging them. It doesn’t need to be this way. The U.S. grid was not always this way. Only in recent years, with the obsessive pursuit of net zero, have rolling black and brownouts become so common.

    Today, utility companies are sending lobbyists to conservative policymakers in order to convince them that the utilities have our best interests in mind. Their track record tells another story. Meanwhile, Americans have less reliable electricity at higher costs.

    Linnea Lueken (llueken@heartland.org, X: @LinneaLueken) is a research fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 11/22/2024 – 06:30

    Russia says it needs migrants to fill labour shortage

    Russia needs migrants in order to develop because of its dwindling domestic workforce, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview published on Friday. “Migrants are a necessity,” he told state news agency RIA Novosti. “We have a tense demographic situation. We live in the largest country in the world but there aren’t that many […]

    The post Russia says it needs migrants to fill labour shortage appeared first on Insider Paper.

    You Missed

    Utility Companies Are Not On Our Side

    Utility Companies Are Not On Our Side

    Russia says it needs migrants to fill labour shortage

    Russia says it needs migrants to fill labour shortage

    Cutting Federal Law Enforcement Funding For ‘Sanctuary’ Blue States To Force Them To Comply With Federal Immigration Laws Is The ‘Tough Love’ The New Admin Should Apply

    Cutting Federal Law Enforcement Funding For ‘Sanctuary’ Blue States To Force Them To Comply With Federal Immigration Laws Is The ‘Tough Love’ The New Admin Should Apply

    🔴LIVE! CHRISTMAS at Universal Orlando!| Stroll and Chill Livestream | 2024

    🔴LIVE! CHRISTMAS at Universal Orlando!| Stroll and Chill Livestream | 2024

    Chinese Agent Who Tried To Bribe IRS Against Shen Yun Sentenced To 20 Months in Prison

    Chinese Agent Who Tried To Bribe IRS Against Shen Yun Sentenced To 20 Months in Prison

    PA Senator Bob Casey Concedes Election to Republican Dave McCormick

    PA Senator Bob Casey Concedes Election to Republican Dave McCormick