Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

674 
WTNT23 KNHC 080845
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  88.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  87.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N  89.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N  90.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N  91.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N  92.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N  92.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N  91.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N  92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  88.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

---