Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
829 WTPZ24 KNHC 130231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Public Advisory
760 WTNT31 KWNH 130230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Advisory Number 18 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062024 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...POST-TROPICAL FRANCINE MOVED NORTHWEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA, ALABAMA, WESTERN GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 90.9W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM W OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES IN EFFECT: Flood Watches and Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of the Mississippi Delta, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 90.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to slow down before the post-tropical storm dissipates on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 8 inches across portions of central and northern Alabama, western Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall is expected across parts of northern Mississippi, northeast Arkansas, southwest Kentucky, and western Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. WIND: Wind Advisories are in effect across portions of eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A few gusts to 40 mph are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hurley
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122043 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Corrected for rainfall statement ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is possible while the cyclone is near or over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Originally Posted at:
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will continue to steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period. Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening. When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried as a remnant low for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Originally Posted at:
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
081
FOPZ14 KNHC 122038
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 34(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Public Advisory
000 WTNT31 KWNH 122035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine Advisory Number 17 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062024 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 89.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES IN EFFECT: Flood Watches and Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast U.S near and southeast the path of Francine. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 89.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and Francine is expected to turn move toward the northwest and slow down. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia. WIND: Wind Advisories are in effect across portions of eastern Arkansas, western and middle Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A few gusts to tropical storm force are possible. SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Taylor/Lamers
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 122022 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive evidence of a tropical storm. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the guidance shifts during this cycle. While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, on the high side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Hurley/Blake
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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