Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT12 KNHC 122022
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT22 KNHC 122021 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 35.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE
Originally Posted at:
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 122021 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 35.9W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 35.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hurley/Blake
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCINE
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Francine Public Advisory
000 WTNT31 KNHC 121438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern Arkansas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Francine Public Advisory
000 WTNT31 KNHC 121142 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle, Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the “Full Forecast” and “3 day” graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),
tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the
center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center
at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be
tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,
then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast
uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white
and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts
the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the
stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data
indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical
cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To
form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the
forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,
where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the
previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed
by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their
effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area
experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least
74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of
39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing
the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane
and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in
the Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the
chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),
50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in
tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in
graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,
and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.
Current subscribers:
Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory
000 WTNT31 KNHC 120847 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Grand Isle, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected during the next day or so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression this morning and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue in portions of the warning area for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion
000 WTNT42 KNHC 120846 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The system has changed little in organization overnight, with limited deep convection and slight banding features. An AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data. The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4- to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus solutions. Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, with low- to moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities
401
FONT12 KNHC 120846
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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