Despite a recent claim in Reason by Paul Schwennesen that a briefly successful Ukrainian advance somehow translates into an ultimate Ukraine victory. The hard facts of the war tell us something different.
The Kamala Harris Plan To Create More Housing Shortages
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
If you want more shortages, then artificially stimulate demand. That’s exactly what Harris proposes, following the lead of AOC.
The National Low Income Housing Coalition discusses the Harris Campaign Plans to Lower Housing Costs.
To address the housing shortage and bring down prices for renters and homeowners alike, the Harris campaign’s plan calls for a historic expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and the first-ever tax incentive for homebuilders who build starter homes sold to first-time homebuyers. Building upon the Biden-Harris administration’s proposed $20 billion innovation fund, the campaign proposes a $40 billion fund that would support local innovations in housing supply solutions, catalyze innovative methods of construction financing, and empower developers and homebuilders to design and build affordable homes.
The campaign plan cites the Biden-Harris administration’s ongoing actions to support the lowest-income renters, including its actions to expand rental assistance for veterans and other low-income renters, increase housing supply for people experiencing homelessness, enforce fair housing laws, and hold corporate landlords accountable.
To make homeownership attainable, Vice President Harris’s proposal would provide up to $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for two years. First-generation homeowners – those whose parents did not own homes – would receive more generous assistance.
Please consider The Kamala Harris Plan for More Housing Shortages
A signature feature of Kamala Harris’s housing plan is providing first-time home buyers with $25,000 in down-payment support, at a total cost of $100 billion over four years. Absent a severe recession, this policy is all but certain to lead to higher home prices. That’s because the four million program recipients would become price setters for all buyers in their neighborhoods.
According to the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, 77% of all home purchases would be subject to this home buyer “tax,” causing the price of these homes to increase by 3.6%. Over four years the increase in home prices would total $175 billion, more than the $100 billion cost of the program. The price increase would show up in higher revenue for sellers, thus acting as a wealth transfer to them.
The plan’s defects don’t stop there. Ms. Harris’s proposed tax incentive for building starter homes is intended to increase housing supply substantially. This approach has led to significant market distortions on at least two occasions.
The Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, with its easy credit terms and substantial subsidies, resulted in a surge of housing permits in 1971 and 1972. By 1975 the housing boom had reversed, leaving lasting scars on cities including Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland. Similarly, the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, which set affordable-housing goals, combined with Bill Clinton’s National Homeownership Strategy, led to credit liberalization in the runup to the 2008-09 financial crisis. Housing permits doubled, from 1.1 million in 1992 to 2.2 million in 2005, but then collapsed by 73% in 2009. In the aftermath, millions faced foreclosure, and the resulting housing-supply deficit still afflicts us today.
Without such dangerous credit easing, it is likely that Ms. Harris’s proposal would provide incentives largely for new homes that would have been built anyway, with any incremental construction being unevenly distributed across the nation. This would cause further imbalances between supply and demand.
History offers a cautionary tale against such federal interference in the housing market: From the 1930s to 2008, at least 43 housing, urban-renewal and community-development programs were signed into law. Despite these laws’ lofty goals, these initiatives consistently failed to make housing more affordable.
It is economic idiocy to believe that Giving people $25,000 to buy a house will do anything but raise prices.
On the supply side, the houses would either have been built anyway or the new construction will be shoddy.
We have had dozens of “affordable housing” programs over the years and if we include state and local efforts the plans number in the hundreds if not thousands.
Everyone of those plans raised prices or caused an economic crash.
Let’s now discuss the Harris plan to “increase housing supply for people experiencing homelessness“
Harris did not put a cost to that. We can look no further than California for the reason, as well as the likelihood of success.
Please recall my June 19, post A New High-Rise Building Will House the LA Homeless in $600,000 Units
A grand opening of Weingart Tower will have 278 units to shelter the homeless. Hooray!?
NBC news reports There are 75,518 people are homeless in the county, and 46,260 in the city of Los Angeles, an increase from the 69,144 in the county, and 41,980 the city from 2022 as of Jan 23, 2023.
$600,000 * 278 = $166,800,000. That’s $166.8 million. And that does not include free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.
If the county were to shelter the 75,518 homeless, the cost would be $45,310,800,000. That’s $45.3 billion, again excluding free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.
And it would not stop there. Every homeless person in the state would move their tent to LA to participate.
This dear woke fans is what’s known as “affordable housing”.
Taxes have to rise to accommodate such stupidity. It makes me angry just thinking about this. For what? Does the city think this will cure the homeless problem?
Most of these people are some combination of drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unstable, and physically unfit to ever work. And even if they did work, they would not be living in $600,000 units.
More and more headlines look as if they are from the Babylon Bee.
On June 17,I commented Hoot of the Day: California Proposes Restraining Orders to Stop Thieves
What’s going on in California is beyond insane.
Also see Twenty Percent of California Lives in Poverty, What’s Going On?
On a cost-adjusted basis, California leads the nation in percentage living in poverty. Blame the Progressive oligarchs like Governor Newsom.
In case case you don’t see where this is headed, let me spell it out for you:
Harris has adopted AOC’s New Green Deal for Public Housing
My hoot of the day is AOC and Bernie Sanders have teamed up for a new green housing deal. I explain where we are and what’s on deck.
AOC says the bill would invest up to $234 billion over a decade into “weatherizing, electrifying, and modernizing our public housing”.
Don’t kid yourself, the whole policy would cost many trillions of dollars.
The Harris sucker pitch is to start out small then add trillions of dollars more when she discovers free $25,000 down payments were not quite enough to reduce costs.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/25/2024 – 07:20
Hundreds of pricey government vehicles have been abandoned around Sri Lanka’s capital after the country’s new Marxist-leaning president took office, a member of his party said Wednesday, with hundreds of others missing. Senior members of the former government had dumped the state-owned cars and SUVs without a proper handover, according to Wasantha Samarasinghe, a member […]
The post Govt cars abandoned as Sri Lanka’s leftist leader takes charge appeared first on Insider Paper.
Escobar: Will A BRICS Bretton Woods Take Place In Kazan?
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
With less than a month before the crucial BRICS annual summit in Kazan under the Russian presidency, serious informed discussions are raging in Moscow and other Eurasian capitals on what should be at the table in the de-dollarization and alternative payment system front.
Earlier this month Andrey Mikhailishin, head of the task force on financial services of the BRICS Business Council, detailed the list of top projects under consideration. They include:
A common unit of account – as in The Unit, whose contours were first revealed exclusively by Sputnik.
A platform for multilateral settlements and payments in BRICS digital currencies, connecting the financial markets of BRICS members: that’s BRICS Bridge, which bears similarities with the Bank of International Settlements-linked MBridge, already in effect. That will complement intrabank systems already in action, as in Russia’s SPFS and Iran’s CPAM settling financial transactions – and 60% of their trade – in their own currencies.
A blockchain-based payment system that entirely bypasses the US dollar: BRICS Pay. Arguably 159 participants may be ready to adopt this sanction-evading, similar-to-SWIFT mechanism right away.
A settlement depository (Clear).
An insurance system.
And crucially a BRICS rating agency, independent from the Western giants.
What’s at stake is the extremely complex design of a brand-new financial system – decentralized and using digital technology. BRICS Clear, for instance, will be using blockchain to record securities and exchange them.
As for The Unit, the value of the common unit of account is pegged by 40% to gold and by 60% to a basket of BRICS member’s national currencies. The BRICS Business Council considers The Unit a “convenient and universal” instrument, since a unit can be converted into any national currency.
That would definitely solve the nagging problem of exchange rate volatility when cash balances accumulate from settlements in national currencies; for example, a mountain of Indian rupees used to pay for Russian energy.
I asked a very direct question to two Russian analysts, one of them a finance tech executive with vast experience across Europe, and the other the head of an investment fund with global reach. Considering the sensitivity of their posts, they prefer to remain anonymous.
The question: Is BRICS ready to become an actor in Kazan next month, and what should be on the table in terms of the strategy to establish an alternative payment system?
“Time has come for BRICS to become a real actor. The world demands it. The leaders of BRICS countries clearly understand it. They have the moral power and the political will to set up an organization to provide a number for BRICS to be called in – that’s the best question for the upcoming summit.”
The analyst is referring to what could be dubbed “the Kissinger moment”, when Dr. K famously quipped, in the Cold War era, “when I want to talk to Europe, who do I call?”
“For a BRICS agreement amongst countries to mean something, countries need to agree on a framework of action and that means accepting some responsibilities in exchange for certain rights. And it sounds there’s no better way to achieve that than to arrive at mutually agreed obligations on settlement of financial transactions.”
One of the analysts added a very important, specific point: “By now the situation is pretty clear, to properly address the issue of cross-border payments. The best mechanism should be based on the New Development Bank (NDB), given that Russia has a mandate to propose the new president of that organization. Whoever the candidate will be, cross-border payments should be at the top of his agenda.”
The NDB is the BRICS bank, based in Shanghai. The analyst hopes this decision on the future of the NDB will be made before the BRICS summit: “Given the diplomatic and political considerations, the candidate should be made known, formally or informally to the member countries.”
New BRICS blockchain payment system to be game-changer amid ‘unstoppable’ dedollarization – expert
Moscow’s decision to create a new BRICS blockchain-based payment system is a “game changing” development for the multipolar world, Christopher Douglas Emms, head of the Brokerage… pic.twitter.com/4cEBFb3c7c
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) September 4, 2024
As it stands, the talk of the town in Moscow informed circles is that Alexey Mohzin, the IMF’s executive director for Russia, has a 60% chance to be appointed to the NDB. In parallel, Ksenia Yudaeva, a former G20 sherpa and former deputy of Russia Central Bank’s Elvira Nabiullina, may become the new representative with the IMF.
So what may be in the cards is a NDB/IMF reshuffle on the Russian front. The focus should be on the potential for future productive change – rather than missed opportunities; the NDB’s policies so far have not been exactly revolutionary – considering that the bank’s statutes are linked to the US dollar.
The new deal could place the NDB as leverage for a reform of the IMF, rather than an alternative to it.
The “Kissinger moment” does play a key role in this equation. It will highlight that until the moment turns into reality, the NDB should be the sole actor for effective changes in crucial matters like the stability of the financial infrastructure.
And from that perspective, as one of the analysts note, “The UNIT and all other similar projects may be presented as complementary risk management tools hedging against reckless monetary policies and Global Financial Crisis-2 risks.”
Time though is running out – fast. President Putin recently met with the Russian Union of Industrialists. They have sent a letter to the administration and the Russian Central Bank outlining what they consider the most promising ideas.
The Unit is one of them. Prime Minister Mishustin’s government is now on the final stages of deciding which projects to support: for the BRICS summit in Kazan, and one week before, for the annual summit of the BRICS Business Council in Moscow.
I posed the same BRICS question to the Russian analysts also to indispensable Prof. Michael Hudson – who actually provided a concise in-depth critique of what may be on the table, while offering a different solution.
For Prof. Hudson, “a new institution has to be created – a Central Bank empowered to issue credit to finance the trade and payments deficits of some countries, with an artificial bancor-type SDR [Special Drawing Rights].”
Prof. Hudson argues “this would be different (his italics) from a clearing house system for existing banks. It would be a BRICS’ IMF. Its bancors credit or balance sheet would only be for settlements among governments, not a generally traded currency. Indeed, making the bancor widely traded as a speculative vehicle (such as the UNIT is) would introduce major instability and have nothing to do with the needed bank transfer balance sheet.”
A reformed NDB, possibly next year under a new Russian presidency, should have all it takes to become a “BRICS’ IMF.”
Prof. Hudson adds that “to succeed, the Kazan conference should be a full-fledged BRICS Bretton Woods. Maybe it is too soon to actually introduce a fait accompli. Perhaps it would be a venue to throw open a set of alternatives — including what would happen by ‘doing nothing’ and going with the current IMF system. The fact that the IMF just cancelled its trip to analyze the Russian economy may be a catalyst.”
Prof. Hudson in fact refers directly to Executive Director for Russia, Alexey Mohzin, who confirmed that the IMF should have come to Russia for consultations, part of their annual review of the Russian economy, but cancelled it because of “technical unpreparedness”.
All that brings us once again to the “Kissinger moment”; it’s unclear whether Kazan will come up with a “BRICS number” anyone could call.
Leaving the dollar-based system for good: What are the digital ruble and BRICS Bridge?
By July 1, 2025, the largest Russian banks will have to provide their clients with the ability to conduct transactions in digital rubles, according to the Russian Central Bank. Pilot testing… pic.twitter.com/fXlp0He0X3
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) September 16, 2024
Prof. Hudson makes an essential last point on the Global South’s dollar debt: he stresses “how to handle BRICS members existing overhang of dollar debts” is a major problem.
What is clear is that “the BRICS bank [the NDB] should not finance deficits by member countries for such payments. In practice, there would have to be a moratorium on such payments – in view of the present weaponization of Western finance.”
Prof. Hudson recalls the chapter in his book Super Imperialism “on how the US moved against Britain in 1944 to get an agreement that it then presented as a pro-US fait accompli to Europe.” The book “reviews all the arguments that took place there.”
Prof. Hudson wishes he would be part of the new, ongoing process. Imagine if BRICS+ manages to pull it off: getting a Global Majority-approved agreement on a new, equitable, fair financial system then presented to the $35 trillion-indebted superpower as a fait accompli.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/24/2024 – 23:25
The gunman accused of planning to kill Donald Trump at his Florida golf course was indicted Tuesday on three additional counts, including attempted assassination of a major presidential candidate, the US Department of Justice announced. Ryan Routh, 58, was arrested on September 15 after Secret Service agents spotted him with a gun near the course […]
The post Gunman suspected of trying to kill Trump charged with attempted assassination appeared first on Insider Paper.
Trump Dominating Sunbelt States Key To Harris Win: NYT Poll
Donald Trump is riding a wave of momentum across the Sun Belt, according to a new poll, which shows the former president ahead in key battleground states like Arizona and Georgia, with North Carolina also leaning in his favor. In a post-debate bump, Trump has solidified his lead in two of those states which he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, Arizona and Georgia, while Kamala Harris struggles to close the gap as she contends with both voter skepticism and a rising Trump campaign.
Trump’s resurgence in these states signals a sharp contrast to Harris’s relatively narrow lead in other battleground areas like Pennsylvania. The most recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from Sept. 17 to 21 reveal Trump ahead in Arizona by five points, leading Harris 50% to 45%. This marks a significant shift from earlier polls where Harris was ahead, thanks in part to Latino voters shifting away from the Vice President.
Remember when Kamala “won” the debate? https://t.co/v5yi4tROVQ pic.twitter.com/BXFFdMM3Sx
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2024
Georgia, another crucial state, shows Trump maintaining a 49% to 45% advantage, while North Carolina — historically a Republican stronghold — remains more competitive, with Trump holding a slim lead of 49% to 47%.
As both campaigns focus heavily on these states, the pressure is mounting. Harris’s campaign has enjoyed a spike in donations and enthusiasm following her recent debate performance, but the polling suggests that Trump’s aggressive “America First” messaging is resonating deeply with voters worried about economic uncertainty, immigration, and the nation’s future.
According to the report, the Sun Belt states are key to a Harris victory in November.
While these three Sun Belt states have drawn a great deal of attention from both the Trump and Harris camps, North Carolina and Georgia are especially essential to the former president’s hopes of returning to the White House, analysts say. Ms. Harris could win even while losing all three of these states, though it would be difficult.
One Trump supporter in Georgia, Tyler Stembridge, expressed concern over the country’s trajectory. “Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well,” he told the NY Times.
The polls also reveal key vulnerabilities for both candidates. Harris’s challenge lies in winning over undecided voters, with about 15% of voters across these three states still undecided or open to switching. Trump’s character remains a sticking point, with concerns over his behavior looming largest in North Carolina, where 44% of undecided voters cited his personality as problematic.
For now, however, Trump’s economic message and promises to address inflation seem to be working in his favor. A majority of respondents in these Sun Belt states believe Trump would do a better job managing the economy, with 55% saying he is better equipped to tackle inflation compared to 42% who favor Harris.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/24/2024 – 18:00
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Russia can only be forced into peace, as he denounced Iran and North Korea as “accomplices” in the war. Addressing a special UN Security Council session attended by a representative of Russia, Zelensky described Moscow as insincere in its calls for dialogue. “We know some in the world […]
The post Zelensky says Russia ‘can only be forced into peace’ appeared first on Insider Paper.
By Brandon Smith The American Founding Fathers built our nation on a core premise that has been long forgotten and…
The post America Tried Third-World Immigration In The 1980s And The Results Were Horrifying appeared first on Alt-Market.us.
from ZeroHedge: Something remarkable happened to the price of gold back in early 2022 around the time of the Ukraine war: having previously tracked gold ETF inflows to the tick, the price of gold suddenly disconnected and exploded higher even as “paper gold” as some call it, slumped. We showed this for the first time back […]
Which Countries Are Most Excited (Or Nervous) About AI?
Globally, there’s mixed feelings towards AI-powered products and services: 54% of people are excited, and 52% of people are nervous. However, feelings about AI differ substantially between countries.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist, by creator Julie R. Peasley looks at how these viewpoints vary among people in 31 different countries using data from Ipsos.
Overall, people in Asia and South America are most excited about products and services using AI. However, it’s important to note that the samples in many of these countries were more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population.
People in Thailand lead in levels of excitement. Interestingly, they are most likely to say they think AI will make their job better in the near future, but are also most likely to say that AI will replace their current job.
| Country | Percent Very/Somewhat Excited | Percent Very/Somewhat Nervous |
|---|---|---|
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 80 | 57 |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 76 | 44 |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 75 | 48 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 74 | 48 |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 74 | 54 |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 74 | 55 |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 72 | 47 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 66 | 58 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 66 | 51 |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 65 | 53 |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 62 | 45 |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 62 | 50 |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 59 | 53 |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 51 | 54 |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 51 | 23 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 50 | 51 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 50 | 50 |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 50 | 38 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 46 | 46 |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 45 | 46 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 43 | 46 |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 43 | 63 |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain | 42 | 65 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 42 | 50 |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 40 | 69 |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 38 | 62 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 37 | 63 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 36 | 52 |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 36 | 63 |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 35 | 50 |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 32 | 53 |
Base: 22,816 adults under the age of 75 across 31 countries, interviewed May 26 – June 9, 2023. The survey was online only in all countries except India. The samples in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population.
In Sweden, people are the least excited. They are tied with Belgium and Ireland as being the least likely to say that AI-powered products and services have profoundly changed their daily life in the past 3-5 years. On top of this, they are least likely to believe AI will change how they do their job or replace their current job.
When it comes to Australia’s feelings about AI, the country has the highest nervousness. People there have low agreement with the statement that products and services using AI have more benefits than drawbacks. They also have some of the lowest levels of trust when it comes to AI bias and privacy concerns.
People’s self-assessed knowledge of which types of products and services use artificial intelligence is connected to their feelings about AI.
For instance, countries where people rated their knowledge to be the lowest tended to have low levels of excitement and higher levels of nervousness. Conversely, when people rated their knowledge more highly, these countries tended to have higher excitement.
To learn which countries are hotbeds for AI innovation, check out this graphic on the number of AI startups by country.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/24/2024 – 06:55
