When Blue Jeans Were A Symbol Of Freedom
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
From Grok:
“For Soviet youth especially, blue jeans represented more than just fashion; they embodied individuality, rebellion, and a connection to the freedoms of the West, standing in stark contrast to the collectivist and restrictive Soviet system. Owning or wearing them became a subtle act of defiance, reflecting a broader yearning for personal expression and a lifestyle beyond the constraints of Soviet rule.”
We will circle back to why I think this is very important but let’s set the stage:
Two weeks ago we published Where the Economy is Headed.
One point was that much of the current data, particularly on the job front, seemed “optimistic” and would likely decline and/or be revised down.
We highlighted several areas of the economy that were causing concern, and those concerns have only increased in the past two weeks.
Last weekend we published You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.
We presented our arguments for why there is no Trump Put, at least anywhere near today’s levels.
We first started to fixate on the risk that all the attention on trade deficits would impact capital flows, which have materially helped the U.S. and were a part of the American Exceptionalism trade.
We highlighted that a large percentage of revenue for companies in the S&P 500 comes from other countries! (This will tie into today’s title).
We laid out two scenarios that could turn markets around, and we haven’t seen either occur yet.
On Friday, we published An American Brand, which to some extent was a prelude to today’s report.
Is the American Brand being affected in such a way that it could hurt sales of American brands?
As I am increasingly nervous about the steps being taken and their impact on our economy and brands, and want to take the time to re-iterate why late last year and early this year we were optimistic.
We specifically use Grok as a source in this piece, under the assumption that of all the AI out there, Grok is most aligned with the administration.
The Goal
The working assumption, one that has solidified over time, is that:
The president wants to return manufacturing to the U.S. and leave a legacy of rebuilding the middle class!
Fully in support of rebuilding the middle class. How can you not be? A middle class that feels safe and secure in their jobs, a middle class that can afford the American Dream, etc. would be awesome. It is not like the middle class is non-existent, but there is room for improvement.
Completely support the need to manufacture more, especially things we need to ensure safety and security. We’ve been pounding the table from an investment standpoint that anything that can be construed as important to National Security should equate to National Production. “Drill Baby Drill” is merely the tip of the iceberg. We’ve argued for “Refine Baby Refine,” where it is not just the extraction of commodities, but the extraction AND processing that is crucial to our success from a National Security standpoint. But it goes well beyond…