Science

A new Ukrainian government statement has made clear the country will reject any alternative to NATO membership if it is proposed as part of a peace plan with Moscow.

Reports of President-elect Trump’s peace plan say it hinges on security guarantees while indefinitely postponing Ukraine joining NATO (for at least 20 years). This is precisely what the Zelensky government is now very vocally pushing back against.

A Tuesday statement from the Foreign Ministry asserts, “Having the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not settle for any alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes for Ukraine’s full membership in NATO.”

The statement continued by calling upon “the U.S. and Great Britain, which signed the Budapest Memorandum,… France and China, which joined it and all the states participating in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” to immediately back Ukraine’s efforts to joint NATO. 

It further suggested that anything less is to fall in line with Russia’s ‘blackmail’. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 saw Ukraine give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons arsenal, and in return Moscow provided security guarantees and recognized borders.

The hard-hitting Ukrainian government statement further stressed, “We are convinced that the only real security guarantee for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent factor for further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is only Ukraine’s full membership in NATO.”

Ukraine has representation at a Tuesday through Wednesday meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. Zelensky has been pushing allies hard to not back down on allowing full NATO membership. He’s even tried to argue that the alliance’s Article 5 self-defense pact doesn’t necessary have to apply to parts of Ukraine occupied by the Russians.

But NATO leaders appear cold to the idea, given the risk of nuclear-armed confrontation with Russia, and given Ukraine’s military is clearly losing the war in the east. NATO chief Rutte has also rejected Zelensky’s plea:

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Tuesday sidestepped questions about Ukraine’s possible membership in the military alliance, saying that the priority now must be to strengthen the country’s hand in any future peace talks with Russia by sending it more weapons.

Rutte’s remarks, ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, came days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that extending alliance membership to territory now under Kyiv’s control could end “the hot stage” of the almost 3-year war in Ukraine, where Russian forces are pressing deeper into their western neighbor.

“The front is not moving eastwards. It is slowly moving westwards,” Rutte said. “So we have to make sure that Ukraine gets into a position of strength, and then it should be for the Ukrainian government to decide on the next steps, in terms of opening peace talks and how to conduct them.”

Kiev is also urgently pushing for more anti-air defense weapons systems from partners. This after Russia has stepped up attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.

“We are talking about an emergency delivery of at least 20 additional Hawk, NASAMS or IRIS-T systems,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrey Sibiga said Tuesday in Brussels, as quoted by RBK Ukraine. “This will help us avoid blackouts. We understand that the Russians are trying to undercut our generation capacity.”

Russia’s military has announced Tuesday that it conducted major naval and air force drills in the eastern Mediterranean, off Syria’s coast, in the wake of Aleppo falling to Al-Qaeda linked jihadist insurgents, and at a moment the central Syrian city of Hama is coming under threat.

Russia confirmed that it has “increased” its troop numbers stationed in the region as a result of the exercises. “Russia’s army said Tuesday it had fired hypersonic missiles during naval and Air Force drills in the eastern Mediterranean that come as its ally Syria loses ground to Islamist rebels,” AFP writes.

Presumably Russia’s naval base off the Syrian city of Tartus played a role as a center of operations for the drills, at a moment Russian warplanes are actively assisting Syrian jets in striking the positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

“On 3 December, during an exercise to test the combined activities of Russian Navy and Air Force troop groups, precision sea-based missiles were launched in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea,” Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed in a Telegram post.

The ministry listed that this included the test-firing of hypersonic Zirkon missiles and a Kalibr cruise missile – and additionally an Onyx cruise missile was launched “from a designated area on the Mediterranean coast.”

“In the course of preparing for the exercise, the Russian Armed Forces’ troops grouping in the eastern Mediterranean was increased,” the ministry added, detailing that it included over 1,000 personnel manning ten naval vessels and two dozen aircraft.

Footage of one of the Tuesday missile launches in the eastern Mediterranean: 

‼️🇷🇺 Russia issues a warning: steer clear of its naval base in Tartus, Syria:

MoD, Russia: The Navy fired hypersonic missiles during exercises in the Mediterranean Sea: frigates “Admiral Gorshkov” and “Admiral Golovko” fired “Zircons.”

“Russian ships conducted exercises in… pic.twitter.com/tIdrROFre3

— ⏳Towhee 🌏☮️ (@amborin) December 3, 2024

Despite the significant muscle-flexing off Syria’s coast, Russia has for years steered clear of directly engaging Israeli fighter jets as they repeatedly bomb Syria, especially targets in and near the capital.

These exercises seem a warning primarily aimed at the United States and its proxies on the ground in Syria. The Pentagon has been sending its own warplanes airborne over regions it occupies in Syria’s east. Moscow also is trying to signal that even though it’s busy fighting in Ukraine, it can still demonstrate a strong force posture in other war theatres as well, specifically the Middle East.