NewsWare’s Trade Talk: Monday, October 21

6 days ago

S&P Futures are moving lower this morning as the market prepares for a host of earnings announcements this week. China’s PBOC lowered two of its short-term lending rates this morning. Shares of Boeing are higher this morning as a deal to end the months-long strike is said to have been reached. Merger talks between Humana and Cigna are said to have restarted. Starboard appears to have taken a stake in KVUE. Tuesday morning earnings announcements are schedule for GE, GM, MMM, MCO, LMT, RTX, TXN, & VZ. In Europe, markets are lower with banks and insurance stocks moving lower. Oil prices are higher by more the +1.50% this morning.

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What is the Gold-to-Oil Ratio?

The gold-to-oil ratio expresses the price relationship between gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. WTI is a grade of crude oil and one of the three primary benchmarks for oil pricing, along with Brent and Dubai Crude.

A high ratio indicates that gold is relatively expensive compared to WTI crude oil, and vice versa. This can indicate periods of outsized demand for energy in the form of crude oil, or periods of monetary uncertainty when there is higher demand for gold.

Below is the gold-to-oil ratio every decade between 1946 and 2024.

During the 1950s and 1960s, fixed gold prices and stable oil prices kept the ratio between 11 and 13 for 20 years.

Since the 1980s, the ratio has typically traded within the range of 6 to 40 with a notable exception: in 2020 when the ratio reached a high of 91.1. The peak in 2020 was driven by COVID-19, which boosted gold prices as a safe haven while oil demand and prices plummeted due to global lockdowns.

In contrast, between 2000 and 2008, oil prices were relatively high compared to gold. During this period, the ratio dropped to nearly 6 but never rose above 16.

When comparing the two commodities, it’s worth remembering that the crude oil market is around 10 times larger than that of gold, making it the largest commodity market in the world.

If you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check out this graphic that shows the top countries by natural resource value.