Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14


572 
WTNT33 KNHC 070251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the 
provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of 
Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and 
Mayabeque

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was 
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A general 
northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west 
at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general 
motion continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, Rafael 
is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the 
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, 
with little change in strength expected on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through 
tonight.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected 
into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches 
across portions of western Cuba.  This may lead to areas of flash 
flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. 

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and 
Middle Florida Keys. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening, 
mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the 
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also 
spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this 
week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


  • NHC

    Related Posts

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14A

    …CENTER OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA…
    …STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
    OVERNIGHT…
    Location: 23.8°N 84.1°W
    Max sustained: 105 mph
    Moving: NW at 13 mph
    Min pressure: 969 mb

    Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

    German Government Collapses As Mass Strikes Grind Economy To A Halt

    German Government Collapses As Mass Strikes Grind Economy To A Halt

    It’s not a good day for the establishment. Just hours after Kamala Harris – and the Democrats – staggering loss which ushered in Trump as president for the third time and gave Republicans a sweep of Congress, Germany’s three-party ruling coalition which had been on the verge of collapse for months, imploded on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election at the end of March.

    The firing ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party  (FDP) from the troubled coalition, forcing Scholz to call for a confidence vote that he said would take place on January 15. If Scholz loses that vote, which is virtually certain, a snap election is set to take place by March.

    The collapse of Germany’s government came just hours after Donald Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, who depend on American military might for their country’s defense and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry.

    “Dear fellow citizens, I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision, especially in times like these, when uncertainty is growing,” said Scholz – viewed as the weakest German chancellor in decades – in a statement at the chancellery.

    But the rifts inside the coalition proved too great to overcome. Caught in the middle of an impossible battle, Lindner and his conservative FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus.

    “All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,” said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.”

    Scholz said he had offered Lindner a deal to create an emergency fund to aid Ukraine that would exist outside Germany’s regular budget, but Lindner refused to participate in such fiscal gimmicks that saw the UK recently redefine the nature of “debt.”

    “Olaf Scholz has long failed to recognize the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.”

    As Politico reports, the FDP is the smallest party in the coalition and is now polling at only four percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament — meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures.

    Crisis talks in the coalition of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and Lindner’s Free Democratic Party had come to a head after the FDP issued a paper with demands for liberal economic reforms that were difficult for the other two parties to accept.

    Lindner’s recent policy paper, leaked to the media last week, called for tax cuts and a scaling back of climate policies in order to stimulate economic growth — both positions that put the party at odds with his coalition partners.

    Central to the coalition disagreements was the adoption of the 2025 budget by parliament in which a gap of at least €2.4 billion, and potentially far more, needs to be filled, as well as an agreement on measures to revamp the country’s ailing economy.

    The government crisis comes at the worst possible time: Trump’s victory, which anticipates imposing significant tariffs on German exports, is expected to put heavy pressure on Europe’s largest economy. An analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that a new trade war could cost Germany €180 billion over Trump’s four years in office.

    Many in Germany had hoped that the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. election earlier in the day would force the coalition to hold together over fears that the incoming president would give Europe’s biggest economy a hard ride, targeting its all-important car industry in a trade war.

    Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences.

    Sensing that the economy is about to go from bad to much worse, last Tuesday – amid mounting concern about the imminent collapse of the EU’s largest manufacturing economy – Germany’s giant trade union IG Metall launched strikes in the nation’s metal and electrical industries in an attempt to win higher wages. According to the tabloid Bild, employees began walking off the job during the night shift, including at Volkswagen’s plant in the city of Osnabruck, where workers worry the plant may be closed.

    Elsewhere, around 200 employees of the battery manufacturer Clarios went on strike in Hanover, Lower Saxony, carrying torches and union flags, the outlet wrote.

    Meanwhile, in Hildesheim, Lower Saxony, around 400 employees, including those at Jensen GmbH, KSM Castings Group, Robert Bosch, Waggonbau Graaff and ZF CV Systems Hannover, have reportedly halted operations.

    Protests are also expected at BMW and Audi plants in Bavaria. Work is to be stopped nationwide during the course of the day, the tabloid wrote.

    ”The fact that production lines are now at a standstill and offices are empty is the responsibility of the employers,” IG Metall’s negotiator and district manager Thorsten Groger stated, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

    IG Metall is demanding a 7% pay raise compared to the 3.6% raise over a period of 27 months offered by employers’ associations, due to soaring inflation. The companies call such demands unrealistic.

    The mass strikes come as Volkswagen announced on Monday it would close “at least” three of its ten plants in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and downsize remaining plants in the country. The measures are part of a cost-cutting drive, the conglomerate said earlier. Oliver Blume, chief executive of the VW Group, has cited a “difficult economic environment” and “failing competitiveness of the German economy” as factors behind the decision.

    The German Association of the Automotive Industry warned last year that the country was “dramatically losing its international competitiveness” due to soaring energy costs.

    A recent survey by the VDA auto industry association suggested that the reshuffling of the German car industry could lead to 186,000 job losses by 2035, roughly a quarter of which have already occurred.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 11/06/2024 – 23:25

    You Missed

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14A

    • By NHC
    • November 7, 2024
    • 3 views

    German Government Collapses As Mass Strikes Grind Economy To A Halt

    German Government Collapses As Mass Strikes Grind Economy To A Halt
    • By Admin1
    • November 6, 2024
    • 4 views

    China’s Xi calls for ‘stable’ US ties in message to Trump

    China’s Xi calls for ‘stable’ US ties in message to Trump

    Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 14

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 2 views

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 4 views