Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 142032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF TOPOLOBAMPO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 108.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and a slow forward speed are expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near over the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
919
FOPZ14 KNHC 142032
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT12 KNHC 142032
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 142032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z...INLAND AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.1N 109.4W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory
000 WTNT22 KNHC 142031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory
000 WTNT32 KNHC 142031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON GOING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 42.9W ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 42.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is forecast to weaken tonight and become a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 141137 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 109.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6 to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Ileana continues to produce bursts of deep convection, but a sharpening of the west side of the cloud canopy suggests stronger vertical shear is setting in. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening, and the fact that subjective and objective intensity estimates have not begun to decrease much quite yet. Ileana's center is moving northward over the southern Gulf of California, away from southern Baja California Sur, with an initial motion of 360/8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue today, bringing Ileana's center near or over the coast of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous prediction during the first 12 hours or so, mainly due to an adjustment of the initial position. The track guidance indicates that Ileana should slow down and turn north-northwestward and then northwestward tonight and on Sunday, generally running up the length of the Gulf of California. Although deep-layer shear is beginning to increase, several models, including the GFS and ECMWF, indicate that Ileana could maintain tropical storm intensity and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora later this morning and early afternoon. These same models, however, show Ileana's convection quickly being sheared away and dissipating by this evening and tonight as the cyclone moves into a much drier air mass. As a result, the NHC forecast shows Ileana degenerating into a remnant low in about 24 hours, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California by early Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 24.3N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 140852
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140851 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 109.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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