Economics

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The epic collapse of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) over the past ten days and Assad’s cowardly flight from Damascus early Sunday morning herald the dawn of a new Syria.

The most immediate risk is that the entire country collapses just like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya before it.

That could create a black hole of instability from which innumerable global terrorist threats could emerge. Here’s what has to happen to prevent post-Assad Syria from experiencing that dark future:

1. The Army & The Security Services Must Remain Intact

The three preceding cases of state collapse were characterized by the army and the security services dissolving shortly after their foreign-backed regime change plots succeeded. In Syria’s case, the SAA still exists as an institution even though it’s on the retreat to who knows where, perhaps to the Alawite-majority coast. It’s therefore imperative that it doesn’t fall apart and cooperates with the non-terrorist anti-government opposition (NTAGO) to ensure that everything doesn’t spiral out of control.

2. Political Reform Must Begin Without Delay

Lavrov repeatedly emphasized during his interview at Saturday’s Doha Forum that that the Syrian government and the NTAGO must immediately implement UNSC Resolution 2254 from late 2015, which calls for drastic political reforms such as a new constitution and UN-supervised elections. It was Assad’s refusal to compromise with the NTAGO that ultimately led to this disaster. Prime Minister Jalali will reportedly serve as caretaker leader during the political transition, however, which is a positive sign.

3. The Russian-Written Draft Constitution Must Be Revived

It was assessed late last month that one of “The Five Reasons Why Syria Was Caught By Surprise” is because Assad rejected the Russian-written draft constitution from January 2017’s first Astana Summit, which was constructively critiqued in detail here at the time. With him out of the way, the multiple concessions that this document called for Damascus to make might finally become a reality, and they might even be taken further than its authors initially envisaged given the new circumstances.

4. The Alawite & Kurdish Minorities Must Be Protected

The Alawite coast remains outside the control of Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorists for now as does the US-backed Kurdish-controlled northeast, both minorities of which must be protected from the jihadists. To that end, the aforesaid document could lay the basis for broad Bosnian-like federalized autonomy that could result in the coast falling under Russia’s “sphere of influence”, as could the northeast if Trump withdraws US forces from there like RFJ Jr. claimed that he plans to do.

5. The Interim Government Must Maintain Russia’s Bases

And finally, Russia can help the interim Syrian government fight against terrorists just like it helped Assad do from 2015 onward, so they must allow it to maintain its bases for that purpose. Their withdrawal would leave the Syrian state defenseless and the Alawite-majority coast at HTS’ mercy. In fact, since Russia’s intervention in Syria was driven by anti-terrorist motives, it might refuse to withdraw on national security pretexts and possibly midwife an independent coastal state to legitimize its continued presence.

Post-Assad Syria is on the brink of all-out collapse that could turn it into the world’s largest hotbed of terrorism if this process isn’t soon averted.

The most effective way to prevent this from happening is following the five pieces of advice from this analysis.

Anything less would greatly raise the chances of the worst-case scenario transpiring, but even in that event, Russia could still mitigate some of the damage if it continues bombing terrorists in Syria and supports the creation of an independent coastal state.

People engage in gaming through a variety of formats, from consoles to mobile devices, driven by factors like convenience, cost, and immersive experiences.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the share of U.S. consumers that reported gaming on a specific device within the past month, using data from a Circana online survey of 5,100 active U.S. gamers conducted in May through June 2024.

The categories of gaming devices are as follows:

• Mobile: iPhone, Android smartphone, iPad, and other smartphone or tablet devices

• Computer: Desktop, laptop, Steam Deck, or other portable PC devices

• Console: PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, PlayStation 4 Pro, Xbox Series X, Xbox Series S, Xbox One, Xbox One X, Nintendo Switch, Nintendo Wii U, Nintendo Wii

• Other: Virtual reality (VR) headsets, plug-and-play devices, child-oriented devices

Which Gaming Devices Do Americans Use The Most?

Below, we show the share of U.S. consumers ages two and up that played on a qualifying device within the previous month of Circana’s survey.

About 71% of U.S. consumers played some form of video game in the month prior to Circana’s survey, with mobile gaming being the largest platform with 65% of U.S. consumers gaming on a mobile device in 2024.

Over half of gamers’ weekly playtime takes place on their phones, according to Circana. The main draw is convenience, as players already have their devices with them, along with the low cost and easy accessibility of mobile games.

PC and console gaming are almost evenly tied, with 36% and 35% of respondents gaming on these platforms respectively.

When looking these formats’ market shares, console gaming held a slight lead over PC gaming with 57% of the 2023 market share, or $53.1 billion revenue compared to PC’s $40.4 billion.

The “Other” gaming category grew by 2% since 2022 due to increased adoption of virtual reality (VR) gaming. VR usage and ownership among U.S. teens is on the rise, with weekly VR use increasing from 10% to 13% and headset ownership growing from 31% to 33% over the past six months, according to a survey by Piper.

Gaming preferences are also dependent on generation. Younger generations like Gen Alpha, Gen Z, and Millennials tend to play on PCs or console more often than older generations, according to Newzoo.

In terms of gaming genres, older generations like Gen X and Boomers tend to gravitate towards puzzle games, usually played on mobile devices.

To learn more about the video game industry, check out this graphic that visualizes console launch prices, adjusted for inflation.