NewsWare’s Trade Talk: Monday. December 2

NewsWare's Trade Talk: Monday. December 2

S&P Futures are displaying weakness this morning with economic and tariff talk in focus. PMI reports & employment data will higher this weeks economic calendar. Trump issues a 100% tariff threat for countries which attempt to replace the dollar as their reserve currency. CEO to automobile manufacturer Stellantis resigns. Cyber Monday kicks off today, retailers indicate positive sales data for their Black Friday sales events. Semiconductor stocks are weak as the Biden administration is said to be preparing additional curbs on sales of tech to China. In Europe, stocks have reversed course and are now trading higher. Oil prices are trading lower, OPEC pushes back its scheduled meeting by 48 hours.

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares Abruptly Quits Over “Different Views” With Board 

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares Abruptly Quits Over "Different Views" With Board 

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares Abruptly Quits Over “Different Views” With Board 

Stellantis NV Chief Executive Officer Carlos Tavares has abruptly resigned from the automaker, citing ‘different views’ with the board of directors, according to an overnight press release. This development comes as auto demand in key markets, including North America, Europe, and China, continues to deteriorate, plunging the entire industry into a vicious downturn. 

“The process to appoint the new permanent Chief Executive Officer is well under way, managed by a Special Committee of the Board, and will be concluded within the first half of 2025,” Stellantis stated, adding, “Until then, a new Interim Executive Committee, chaired by John Elkann, will be established.” 

Stellantis’ Senior Independent Director, Henri de Castries, commented on Tavares’ departure: “However, in recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the Board and the CEO coming to today’s decision.”

The world’s fourth-largest carmaker has recently warned about sliding sales and bloated inventory in North America, which led to the profit warning announced in September. By early October, Stellantis CFO Natalie Knight informed her team about the need to take “drastic measures” to shore up the Jeep and Ram parent’s finances. Then, in recent weeks, after a nightmare of a year, the automaker began pausing production of certain models. 

Goldman’s George Galliers commented on Tavares’s departure to clients this AM:

CEO resignation confirmed – Yesterday evening, Stellantis confirmed that it had accepted the resignation of its CEO, effective immediately, citing different views on future direction. Previously, the CEO was due to retire in early 2026, hence, yesterday’s departure is just over 12 months earlier than expected. Stellantis confirmed its FY24 guidance for an adj. operating income margin of 5.5-7.0% (GSe 6.2%, company compiled consensus 6.2%) and ind. free cash flow of -€5 to -€10bn (GSe -€7.3bn, cons -€6.9bn). While the outgoing CEO has a long-standing reputation and this announcement is earlier than expected, in light of recent tensions with stakeholders and the step-down in 2024’s financial performance, we expect the market to focus on the likely successor. The CFO is due to attend our 16th Annual Industrials and Autos Conference this week.

Press reports of tensions with key stakeholders – Stellantis’ financial performance this year has fallen short of expectations, with the company suffering from excess inventory in North America and late to market product launches in Europe. At our 15th Annual Industrials and Autos Conference, the departing CEO spoke about the industry facing a Darwinian race and, therefore, the need to drive efficiencies and cost savings. However, over the course of 2024, press reports suggest this has created tensions with stakeholders including Stellantis’ US dealers, US workforce, and politicians in Italy and the UK. In addition, the industry continues to undergo significant pressure as a result of the ongoing transition to BEVs, necessitated by regulation in the UK and Europe, and the potential risk from Chinese competition.

Successful historical performance under the outgoing CEO – The outgoing CEO oversaw the creation of Stellantis through the merger of PSA and FCA, with STLA going on to report a strong 13.4% adj. operating margin in FY22 and 12.8% in FY23 as well as combined ind. FCF >€23bn during the period. Previously, as CEO of PSA, he oversaw a turnaround that led PSA to increase adj. op. margins from 1.5% in 2014 to 8.5% in 2019 with adj. op. income seeing an 8x increase. Even in 2024, we believe the levels of profitability achieved by STLA in emerging markets is notably stronger than peers. Past financial turnarounds, and industry-leading margins were achieved through rigorous pricing and a tough stance on cost. Despite the downturn in STLA’s N.American and European performance, in 2024, as a producer of 5 to 6mn units operating in multiple different jurisdictions, the stewardship of Stellantis will be a substantial role for the outgoing CEO’s successor.

Galliers reaffirmed a “Buy” rating on Stellantis shares trading in Europe, noting, “We apply a P/E target multiple of 5.0x to our 2025 EPS to derive a 12-month price target of €16/$17.” 

Shares in Milan plunged 8.5% on the news, the lowest intraday print since July 2022. On the year, shares have fallen 45%. 

Here’s what other Wall Street analysts had to say (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bernstein (market-perform)

  • Analysts led by Daniel Roeska struggle to “identify any scenario under which these events can be positively spun as far as the stock price is concerned”
  • Say investors will now likely have to wait until the arrival of the next CEO for more reliable answers
  • Think the market will be wondering why the board “considered that not having a permanent CEO for some months was preferable to keeping the current CEO”

RBC (sector perform)

  • Analyst Tom Narayan says this announcement is a surprise, but wonders if it was related to the CEO’s already planning to retire in early 2026
  • Management changes made in early October did seem “odd” and this could also have played a role
  • “Entirely possible that Stellantis can get through this rough patch,” but a bunch of potential headwinds such as CO2 compliance in Europe, Chinese competition, risk of US tariffs leave RBC on the sidelines

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

  • Think overall investor opinions of the CEO were favorable, despite the company’s “considerable underperformance” this year, analyst Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan writes
  • Tavares was overall recognized for role in delivering merger, efforts on cost-cutting, commitment to execution and “agile” Chinese OEM strategy
  • Wonders if exit may herald a new strategic direction, creating uncertainty for investors until a new CEO is appointed

JPMorgan (overweight)

  • Analyst Jose Asumendi says exit of a CEO and a CFO in such a short period seems unprecedented, creating “challenge” for investors
  • Chairman John Elkann, who will lead the interim leadership committee, does have good track record across differing industrial groups which provides “solid base” for now
  • However, there is unlikely to be any significant major earnings improvement priced in by investors for FY25 until the management team is reset

Jefferies (hold)

  • Not entirely surprising news, but leaves the company without a CEO at a time when a number of “critical decisions” need to be made, analyst Philippe Houchois writes
  • Understands that Tavares wanted to actively contribute to turning around performance before his previously planned 2026 exit, but that the board likely sanctioned his proposals or management style

European automakers have been struggling as a whole.

The collapse in profitability under Tavares’ watch has been disastrous. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/02/2024 – 07:20

Syria’s Assad says conflict in north a bid to ‘redraw map’ of region

Syria’s Assad says conflict in north a bid to ‘redraw map’ of region

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad said an Islamist-led offensive in his country’s north was an attempt to “redraw” the map of the region, in remarks during a call with his Iranian counterpart Monday. “The terrorist escalation reflects the far-reaching goals of dividing the region and fragmenting the countries in it and redraw the map in line […]

The post Syria’s Assad says conflict in north a bid to ‘redraw map’ of region appeared first on Insider Paper.

The Cultural Background of Ludwig von Mises

The Cultural Background of Ludwig von Mises

12/02/2024 By Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn Originally published in the Mises Institute’s Studies in Classical Liberalism series in 1999. The text of this essay is available at https://mises.org/essays-political-economy/cultural-background-ludwig-von-mises What is the Mises Institute? The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international … Read more

Sorry Ladies But Y’all Have No One To Blame But Yourselves!

Sorry Ladies But Y'all Have No One To Blame But Yourselves!

 


Originally posted at MenNeedToBeHeard YouTube Channel


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Watergate Prosecutor Wine-Banks: ‘Thrilled’ Biden Pardoned Hunter, Should Pardon ‘Himself’ Next

Watergate Prosecutor Wine-Banks: 'Thrilled' Biden Pardoned Hunter, Should Pardon 'Himself' Next

Former prosecutor Jill Wine-Banks, one of the prosecutors during the Watergate scandal, said Sunday on MSNBC’s “Prime” that she was “thrilled” President Joe Biden pardoned his son Hunter Biden.

The post Watergate Prosecutor Wine-Banks: ‘Thrilled’ Biden Pardoned Hunter, Should Pardon ‘Himself’ Next appeared first on Breitbart.

The Nuclear Energy World Awaits Trump

The Nuclear Energy World Awaits Trump

The Nuclear Energy World Awaits Trump

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

America’s nuclear energy industry has something special going for it.

“Nuclear energy is one of the few issues that receives bipartisan support across the country,” Maria Korsnick, the president and CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute, told The Epoch Times in a statement.

The then former U.S. President Donald Trump and Republican presidential nominee, speaks at a campaign rally at McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, Ga., on Oct. 28, 2024. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Democrat-aligned billionaires like Bill Gates have invested heavily in advanced nuclear, as have Republican-aligned billionaires like John Catsimatidis. Meanwhile, sustained, large-scale opposition to nuclear power from the left has mostly dissipated, at least in the United States. Environmentalists increasingly see it as an attractive source of carbon-free baseload power.

Physicist James Walker, CEO of the microreactor firm Nano Nuclear Energy Inc., pointed out that the ADVANCE Act of 2024, key legislation for the deployment of new reactor technologies, was backed by Republicans and Democrats alike. As part of the Fire Grants and Safety Act, it gained overwhelming support from both parties in the House of Representatives, where it passed 393 to 13, and in the Senate, where it passed 88 to 2.

A Nov. 12 policy blueprint from the Biden White House outlines a plan to triple the country’s nuclear energy capacity over the next quarter century.

It certainly appears that the outgoing administration and Democrat-led Senate are pro-nuclear. Yet, with Donald Trump’s reelection, “there also might be additional benefit,” Walker told The Epoch Times.

He hopes the new administration will spur domestic production of a fuel used by advanced nuclear reactors. Russia and China dominate the supply chain for that fuel, which is called high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU).

Earlier this year, the U.S. banned the importation of Russian uranium, with any waivers set to expire by 2028. In October, the Department of Energy awarded six companies contracts for HALEU production.

I can’t see, even under the new administration, that relationship being remedied enough that we can go back to sourcing Russian weapons-grade material,” Walker said.

At a Nov. 21 Heritage Foundation roundtable on nuclear energy, Constellation Energy’s David Brown said that American firms involved in producing low-enriched uranium, also supplied by Russia and other countries, have generally set the end of this decade as their launch date, but progress has been slow.

Even amid the bipartisan push for advanced reactors, some scientists and activists worry HALEU is far more easily weaponized than low-enriched uranium, which has become more of a concern recently as the possibility of nuclear war lurches back into public discourse.

“The risk of nuclear war is currently higher than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Matthew Bunn, a nuclear and energy policy analyst at the Harvard Kennedy School, told The Epoch Times via email.

“The acute issue is Iran, which is now closer to the edge of a nuclear weapons capability than ever before.”

‘We Need to Revolutionize How We Think’

Trump’s vision includes a new National Energy Council that, in his words, will cover “all forms of American energy” and blaze a trail to American energy dominance. Its prospective members include his pick for energy secretary, fracking innovator Chris Wright. Wright sits on the board of directors of a fission reactor company, Oklo Inc.

Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. CEO Chris Wright on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 12, 2018. Lucas Jackson/Reuters

The council’s chair, likely Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, would also be part of the National Security Council.

Trump’s planned Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, will be led in part by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. During his own presidential run, Ramaswamy called to eradicate the Nuclear Regulatory Commission or NRC.

He described the agency as “the damper on the revival of nuclear energy in the United States of America.”

Some other insiders have shared similar frustrations with the regulatory status quo.

We need to revolutionize how we think, how we regulate,” said Jack Spencer, an energy and environmental policy researcher at the Heritage Foundation, during the Nov. 21 nuclear energy roundtable.

Doug Bernauer, the CEO of microreactor startup Radiant Nuclear, objected to the pace of reactor licensing in a Nov. 20 post on X.

“No new nuclear reactor design has been licensed in over 50 years in the US. … Will DOGE fix nuclear?” Bernauer wrote.

Mixed Reactions From Industry to DOGE

Some in the nuclear industry have reservations about DOGE.

John Kutsch, the leader of the Thorium Energy Alliance, hopes the administration makes its cuts carefully.

There’s actual useful things the Department of Energy does,” he told The Epoch Times, citing the agency’s role in nuclear weapons management.

Kutsch believes the closure of the Bureau of Mines during the 1990s was a mistake that ultimately hampered American mining. He said he doesn’t want to see something similar happen again.

We don’t have critical materials readily available in this country because we can’t open up a mine to save our lives,” he said.

Walker also sounded a note of caution about possible cuts.

“Downsizing something like the NRC might not inherently make it better, because they still will need a lot of people to do a lot of work,” the nuclear industry entrepreneur said.

Walker was cheerier about the prospect of using artificial intelligence to speed up licensing of new reactor designs, at least if such an approach proves technologically feasible.

“You could probably reduce the number of people by an order of magnitude,” he said.

Walker hopes that the administration can develop a better approach to regulating advanced reactors. The current framework, he said, is adapted to the large, light-water reactors currently operating on the U.S. grid.

Nuclear power plant Vogtle Unit 3 and 4 sites are under construction near Waynesboro, Ga., in February 2017. Georgia Power/Handout via Reuters

DoE Destruction of Uranium-233 Worries Thorium Advocates

While Kutsch defended some aspects of the Department of Energy, he’s not happy with its approach to uranium-233, a uranium isotope that can be used in thorium-based nuclear energy production.

This is what gets me mad about bureaucracies,” said Kutsch, whose organization in 2023 signed a memorandum of understanding with El Salvador.

Kirk Sorensen of Flibe Energy, a molten salt reactor company exploring thorium in one of its designs, described uranium-233 as “a marvelous pre-fuel” during the Heritage roundtable with Spencer and Brown.

The Department of Energy has started eliminating the U-233 stored at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

“Originally created in the 1950s and 1960s for potential use in reactors, U-233 proved to be an unviable fuel source,” the Department of Energy stated in a June post on its disposition project webpage.

An aerial view of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory campus in a file photo. Oak Ridge National Laboratory via The Department of Energy

Sorensen said the department’s U-233 disposition “should be stopped immediately.”

Kutsch said much of that stored U-233 could be used in thorium-based molten salt reactors or in nuclear medicine.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) proposed bill, the Thorium Energy Security Act of 2022, aimed to facilitate U-233 storage and mandate reports on China’s thorium-based reactor research. It never moved out of committee.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/01/2024 – 23:20