5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 09:14:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 09:22:49 GMT
…HONE MOTION REMAINS ERATIC AS IT BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY…
As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 30
the center of Hone was located near 22.5, -175.9
with movement NNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024
000 WTPA41 PHFO 310831 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Another nocturnal convective bloom has begun along the northeastern semicircle of Hone this evening. Deep convection obscures the low level circulation center (LLCC) once again after at least 12 hours of total exposure. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.0/30 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 29 kt and, unfortunately, Hone fell into the ASCAT scan gap this cycle. Given all this, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt once again. Short term motion has become a bit erratic for Hone, with movement toward the north or even north northeast detected at 5 kt or less since 03Z. Motion over the past 12 hours, used to smooth out erratic motion like this, was about 330 degrees at 5 kt. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on what Hone's initial motion should be this cycle. It seems clear that Hone has begun its forecast turn to the north northwest as it starts to feel the influence of an upper low near Midway Atoll. Global models show Hone's LLCC and the upper low becoming well-aligned in the next 24 to 36 hours. After that, Hone will move slowly northwestward. Little change was made to the track forecast through 48 hours, other than a nudge to the right to account for current erratic motion. Beyond that, the track forecast was adjusted significantly to the right to keep it within the ever-shifting guidance envelope, closely following HWRF. Even with this adjustment, the forecast track lies within the left third of this envelope. Global models show shear across Hone will diminish rapidly over the next 36 hours. Sea surface temperatures will remain marginally favorable for development through 48 to 60 hours, with sub-27 degree C water encountered afterward. Except for HAFS, which repeatedly calls for rapid intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within this envelope, close to IVCN, with little change from the last forecast cycle. Hone will slowly strengthen through 120 hours but cap out as a tropical storm. After passing south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the International Dateline sometime Sunday afternoon Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 22.5N 175.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 23.3N 176.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 24.6N 177.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 25.5N 178.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.3N 179.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 28.0N 179.3E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 29.7N 178.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 32.1N 176.7E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 34.6N 175.0E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell
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…HONE MOTION BECOMING ERATIC AS IT BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY…
As of 8:00 PM HST Fri Aug 30
the center of Hone was located near 22.2, -175.6
with movement WNW at 6 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Spin Cast Liner: https://youtu.be/XN9ZX5WSu0U
Simplex V1: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyV774-3p834YZBNKFrN1ypaIfewSlVsx
OpenMotor: https://github.com/reilleya/openMotor
Thanks to Derek for filming the burning grains: @DerekHonkawa
Simplex V2 static fire with data: https://youtu.be/74qdt_gtTAA?si=57Iwf9gGsZA7sCZM
Some places to look if you want to learn more about solid rocket motors:
https://www.rocketryforum.com/
https://www.reddit.com/r/rocketry/
https://www.nakka-rocketry.net/
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/
Charlie also has a great series of videos about solids on his channel: @AstroCharlie
Making solid rocket motors is dangerous. It has killed people before and it can kill you too. Please find an experienced mentor in-person to help you get started – they'll teach you all the things a YouTube video can't. Join the NAR/TRA, go to a local launch, start asking around about building an experimental rocket motor. While the NAR doesn't allow flights of experimental motors, it is still filled with members who likely know someone who can help. TRA does allow experimental motors, and you'll probably have more luck there.
https://www.nar.org/
https://www.tripoli.org/
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Music used (in order):
Under The Microscope: https://soundcloud.com/joe-barnard/under-the-microscope
Wendy Marcini – Let's Take a Ride: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IYl3n2Ochc
Little Island Lead – Tobago Blue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oBfvASB4Mg
Wendy Marcini – Creamy Cheesecake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdE_LuK3s_k
Moins Le Quartet – Snap to It: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoLwoTvPNi0
Roots and Recognition – Cosmic Circle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_DylPGuiOQ
David Celeste – Frequency: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXEHKYE_90E
Then an old BPS song I haven't put on soundcloud yet at the end
Second channel, mostly for KSP: https://www.youtube.com/user/musicmakr
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